Naimi says oil price at $100/barrel 'seems reasonable'
Dubai (Platts)--18Mar2013/824 am EDT/1224 GMT
Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi said Monday that the price of oil
at $100/barrel seemed "reasonable" and would not deter economic growth
in Asia while reiterating the kingdom's commitment to maintaining spare
oil production capacity for the sake of market stability.
"Over the past 15 years, it is clear that oil prices have fluctuated
more than at any time in history," Naimi told the Credit Suisse Asia
Pacific conference in Hong Kong.
"My first speech in Asia as minister was in Singapore in 1996. Oil was
just over $20 per barrel and I told the audience that the price, at the
time, seemed 'reasonable.' Four years later, I spoke at the Institute of
Energy Economics in Japan and the price was around $27 per barrel. I
told the audience that, at that time, the price also seemed reasonable.
Today, it's up around $100 -- and guess what? yes it seems reasonable,"
he added. "That said, I'm sure current levels will not deter further
economic growth in Asia," Naimi continued, noting that Saudi Arabian oil
exports to the Asian market had grown by 50% since 1997.
Oil exports by the OPEC kingpin to China alone had gone from zero to 1
million b/d, he said, adding that Saudi Arabia had also entered into
joint ventures in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and China, a
reference to downstream and storage agreements concluded by Saudi Aramco
in recent years.
Naimi also sought to dispel what he said were myths over such issues as
Saudi Arabia's oil production capacity, the potential impact on its
future oil exports from high domestic consumption and the belief that
Riyadh needs a certain price level to maintain public spending.
"In essence, this price point is as much to do with the global economy
than any national government," Naimi said, according to a transcript
provided by the oil ministry in Riyadh. "If the price crashes to
$40/barrel, God forbid, this has a major impact on us, of course, but it
also hits the global economy." He added: "Our central interest lays in
global economic growth increasing, regardless of the price. To think we
sit around dreaming up ways to keep the price at a certain level to fund
domestic projects is fanciful.
Our current level of infrastructure spending will not rise
exponentially. The reality is that our economic growth, and the economic
growth of the wider Middle East, depends on the health of the global
economy."
"The bottom line is this: the prospects for the energy industry are
stronger now than in any time in recent history. Wildly fluctuating
prices may be good for a few traders, but it is not good for long-term
economic stability and growth."
As for Saudi energy demand, Naimi said Riyadh was diversifying its
sources of energy, investing in gas and renewable and adopting
efficiency measures.
"Current levels of oil consumption growth are temporary. Our position as
long-term, reliable suppliers of oil to Asia, and the world, is not in
doubt." He reiterated Saudi Arabia's commitment to maintaining spare oil
output capacity and said questions as to the existence of this spare
capacity were not justified. Furthermore, he added, new technology was
unlocking new conventional and unconventional oil and gas reserves while
extending the life of conventional resources.
"Fracking in the US, offshore drilling in Brazil, increasing progress in
the Arctic -- these new reserves mean the harbingers of doom have been
replaced by the prophets of plenty," Naimi said.
"I believe new commercial reserves such as shale oil, are good news for
the global economy, which relies on an increasing variety of energy
sources to help power growth. I also hope this increased global capacity
will ensure even greater stability for markets and prices," he added.
"So it is not a question of whether Saudi Arabia has the spare capacity,
but whether we need to spend billions maintaining it all. The answer is,
of course, that we maintain a spare capacity to ensure oil market
stability and to see that growing global economies are well supplied. We
know it plays a pivotal role in protecting the world's economic health
and it is a responsibility we have faithfully and reliably discharged
over several decades."
Turning to what he said were certainties ahead, Naimi said that
continued economic growth and transformation in Asia, which had not been
impacted by the US financial crash of 2008, was not in doubt, noting new
leadership across the region, a policy of economic prudence and fiscal
management.
"This transformation will, of course, require energy to drive it. Again,
I repeat my commitment: Saudi Arabia will continue to be a long-term
energy partner within Asia," Naimi said.
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, produced 9.2 million b/d
of crude oil in February, according to the latest Platts survey of
OPEC's production. The kingdom puts official oil production capacity at
12.5 million b/d.
--Kate Dourian,
kate_dourian@platts.com
--Edited by James Leech,
james_leech@platts.com
© 2013 Platts, The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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