Unfortunately both of these views are both true and untrue
depending on the prism of the vested interest involved.
Currently solar industry participants (particularly those
involved in PV) are lined up behind these two viewpoints.
It is time to all line up together behind a common cause –
battling entrenched and well-funded (including subsidies)
conventional energy and unseating it to become the primary
source of electricity globally and make money doing it. When a
solar system is installed planet earth and all of its
inhabitants benefit whether or not they actually paid for the
system installation.
- As PV (and other solar technology) manufacturing
pioneers continue dropping by the wayside time to STOP
saying that this consolidation is healthy and start figuring
out how to jump start a healthy recovery
- There are about a million examples that disprove the
cliché THE ENDS JUSTIFY THE MEANS, so, let’s stop saying it.
- For goodness sake in a healthy industry everyone along
the value chain needs to maximize utility – this means all
players need to make money, save money and be able to
justify the sale or purchase. The time is long past when
manufacturers of PV technology can justify losing money on
such a massive basis.
- On the subject of money, the money losses of PV
manufacturers are catastrophic and here is the primary
reason why this is so – the loss of innovation (meaning low
investment in R&D) will slow progress in this industry for
the near-term, perhaps even the mid-term, but because of the
innovative soul of the solar industry likely not the
long-term.
- Moore’s law (about the doubling of transistors on
integrated circuits over a period of time) is not a good
match for decreasing costs of PV manufacturing. PV is an
industry filled with researchers, scientists, engineers –
innovators all – can’t we come up with our own law? Here is
an idea, give an award to the student who develops a thesis
(and proves it) that actually fits solar industry cost
declines. Hint: it will take time, research and money and
it is worth it.
- And on the subject of poor analogies – just because the
PV industry uses semiconductor technology does not mean its
behavior is synonymous with the semiconductor industry.
Please reread number 5.
- Nor is a-Si (amorphous silicon) and tandem junction a-Si
or micromorph manufacturing synonymous with the LCD industry
manufacturing. Please reread numbers 5 and 6.
- Whether upstream or downstream, and no matter the
location, we are all in this fight together. Time to join
up on a global solar strategy.
- Cynicism should be out, let pragmatic optimism reign.
- Bias is almost always a thought killer; take in all the
data and information and approach problems cleanly without a
foregone conclusion or something you are trying to prove.
- No more killing off technologies (crystalline in the
past, thin films now); there is an application for all solar
technologies.
- Stop thinking that a brand new, game changing technology
will be discovered tomorrow – the entire PV industry (and
CPV and CSP) is already made up of game changing
technologies.
- Stop looking for the brand new, savior application that
will result in a sustainable (without subsidies) market for
PV (CPV and CSP) – micro-grids, for example, have been
around for decades.
- Stop looking for the emerging market that will solve the
solar industry’s problems either with or without subsidies.
Markets are opening up now because the low price of modules
has enabled lower system costs and these same prices are
killing off PV (and CPV and CSP) manufacturing. These same
markets will turn bad for system integrators, solar
developers and EPC when the PPA and tender bidding becomes
too low to support a quality or, profitable installation.
- Stop thinking that PV technology manufacturing (the
cell, whether thin film or crystalline) should naturally be
in China or other parts of Asia because they do it better –
or, before reaching this conclusion, take a look at the
current financial statements for manufacturers. Basically,
there is no logic to concluding that one region or country
should be the manufacturing or innovation center for solar.
Think of all the young dreams and future innovation that is
lost by discouraging manufacturing in Europe, the US and
other regions and countries.
- Stop banging the grid parity drum it is drowning out
common sense.
- Take a look at all the PV manufacturing top ten lists
and, as all the manufacturers had negative net incomes in
2012, ask yourself who on earth would want to be on these
lists.
- As the RPS standards in the US near fulfillment push
either for extensions or prepare for a fight.
- One PV industry message to potential residential and
commercial customers used to be energy independence – the
joy of seeing the meter spin backwards and the thrill of
zeroing out an energy bill. This is being supplanted by: It
is irresponsible to zero out an electricity bill because the
utility needs to make money. The follow on to this is that
of COURSE system owners should be glad to pay a fee not to
be taken off line. The fact is that in an emergency we can
all be taken off line. Read your utility bill fine print.
- No more winners and losers, every time a solar
participant fails something vital is lost.
- Some business is not worth doing, examples: unprofitable
business done just to plant a megawatt in the ground or to
serve the latest fad.
- PV is the best distributed generation technology – take
it back to the community and find ways to make this work.
The closer solar gets to the community the more involvement
is created and the greater the chance of a grass roots
movement building momentum.
- Financing (zero or low interest) remains the biggest
roadblock to residential DG PV growth and the solar lease is
not a panacea to this – let’s find a way for potential solar
system customers (whether or not they rent their home) to
afford PV system ownership – this means engaging landlords
and other stakeholders. The foreclosure crisis in the US
and other places has allowed conglomerates to gobble up
homes and become landlords. This is unfortunate but does
not mean that these new landlords cannot be encouraged to
install PV systems for the good of their renters (lower
utility bills) and for the good of the air we breathe.
- There are no winners in trade wars and no country is a
100% good actor in terms of winning unfair industry
battles. Let’s work together as an industry to create our
own standards and keep solar a global manufacturing and
deployment industry – YES we say this all of the time. Let’s
do it.
- It is currently in vogue to admit that conventional
industry has unfair subsidies while also throwing up our
collective and figurative hands and stating that there is
nothing we can do about it – sure there is, and there is
safety in numbers. Let’s get together as a whole and fight.
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