The Morning Brief - Lignet
The Conclave’s Top 10: Three Are Frontrunners for Pope
As the conclave formally begins in Rome, the Cardinals who will choose
the next Pope enter the Sistine Chapel sharply divided about the future
direction of the Roman Catholic Church. On one side are those who favor
a continuance of the status quo, while on the other are those who
believe the Church needs sweeping organizational reforms to restore its
credibility and health. The outcome of this battle could determine who
the next Pope will be, but if the tug-of-war between the two sides ends
in a stalemate, a surprise compromise choice could emerge.
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North Korea: New Belligerent Rhetoric Could Lead to Conflict
While North Korea has a long history of bombastic rhetoric, the
increasing level of vitriol it has demonstrated by an announcement
nullifying the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War and the severing
of a communications hotline with South Korea likely portend future
provocative actions. Combined with threats last week to launch a
preemptive nuclear strike against the United States, it is clear that
North Korea is playing a dangerous game of brinksmanship, almost
certainly in an attempt to extract concessions and aid from the
international community, specifically the United States, South Korea,
and Japan.
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Iran: Mounting Evidence That Sanctions Have Failed
Testimony by senior-level U.S. military commanders before the Senate
Armed Services Committee last week painted a bleak picture of the
effectiveness of international sanctions at stopping Iran’s development
of nuclear weapons. The testimony, and public polling results, also
point to the sanctions’ unintended consequences.
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Egyptian Police in Crosshairs After Soccer Rulings Upheld
Distrust of Egypt’s police force is likely to grow after a controversial
court ruling lead to growing confrontations with protesters, further
heightening tensions and slowing prospects for democratic rule. Egypt’s
deteriorating security situation and economic condition will likely
worsen unless President Mohammed Morsi takes steps to enact major
institutional, political and economic reforms.
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Russia’s Naval Base in Syria: Weak Link in Putin’s Naval
Expansion Plan
Russia has announced that it will establish a continuous naval presence
in the Mediterranean Sea by 2015, a move designed to mirror the old
Soviet Fifth Naval Squadron. A critical component of Russia's plan is
its naval base in Tartus, Syria. However, given the deteriorating
situation in Syria, Moscow is likely looking for alternatives to the
Tartus base.
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British Pound Battered by Waves
of Uncertainty
In the past four months, the relative tranquility of the British
pound has been shattered. The pound has fallen 6 percent against the
U.S. dollar, 7 percent against the euro and 6 percent when measured
against a basket of leading currencies. During this time, there has been
bad news on the UK balance of payments, on the government’s progress in
cutting the fiscal deficit and on the overall performance of the
economy. As a result, Moody’s downgraded UK government debt from AAA to
AA1 on February 22. The new governor of the Bank of England may be able
to steady the ship once he starts work in July, but the fundamental
problems of a broken banking system, a lackluster economy and a
susceptibility to inflation will remain.
Italian Political Turmoil Poses Difficult Choices for EU
Pier Bersani, the head of Italy’s center-left Democrats, who received a
plurality in parliamentary elections last month, stunned Europe this
week by joining two other party leaders in calling for the deeply
unpopular economic austerity measures of the outgoing government to be
abandoned. Despite this flip-flop, Bersani looks unlikely to break a
political deadlock to form a new government. This is raising European
fears that a strongly anti-austerity Italian party may win a majority in
a new round of elections in a few weeks -- a result that could upend
recent EU measures to prevent a new European debt crisis.
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Yemen: Far From Stable a Year After Saleh
Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is finding it difficult to
promote stability in Yemen a year after long-time authoritarian
President Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned following mass protests that shook
the country. Not only does Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
remain a continuing threat to the security of Yemen and the region,
several insurgencies continue to challenge government control and show
no signs of ending.
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