The Morning Brief - Lignet



Israel: Netanyahu Forced to Exclude Religious Parties From New Government
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today finalized an agreement to form a fractious governing coalition with centrist and far-right parties that excludes religious parties that have been his close allies. The new government, the result of weeks of difficult negotiations, is likely to be unstable because of major differences over questions such as draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox, West Bank settlements, and negotiations with the Palestinians. The agreement does, however, buy time for Netanyahu to rebuild his support and recover from a series of political misjudgments that have undermined his popular support.
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Taiwan: Enhanced Bilateral Ties Spur Chinese Espionage
Successful Chinese recruitment of high-level Taiwanese military leaders for espionage demonstrates a systemic counterintelligence challenge and an inherent weakness in Taiwan’s state security apparatus. A series of recently publicized examples of intelligence and military penetrations underscore the double edge sword of Taiwan’s desire to enhance bilateral relations with Beijing while protecting its core strategic national security interests.
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Bulgaria: Uncertainty to Hamper Governing
Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev appointed a technocratic interim government and set elections for May in hopes of calming public unrest, but the moves are unlikely to bring even near-term stability. Public dissatisfaction over strict austerity will remain a serious problem, challenging both the interim leaders and whoever wins the elections. Moreover, with no single party likely to capture a majority in the May electoral contest, the country could face a protracted period of both economic and political uncertainty.
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U.S. Intelligence Emphasizes Cyber Threats But Plays Down Iranian Danger
A report on worldwide threats briefed to Congress this week by U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper highlighted concerns over cyber attacks and cyber espionage, citing "food security" as a major national security threat, but continued the U.S. Intelligence Community's practice of downplaying Iran’s interest in developing a nuclear weapons capability.
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Czech President Unlikely to Reverse Opposition to Euro
The presidential inauguration of pro-euro Miloš Zeman has ended ten years strong euroskepticism in the Czech Republic fostered by outgoing President Vaclav Klaus. However, Klaus remains popular and the continuing European sovereign debt crisis is fueling popular resistance to the euro, making it unlikely that Zeman will succeed in bringing the country significantly closer to the EU or getting it to adopt the euro.
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Syria: Allies Frustrated with US Inaction
Contrary to assertions he made in high-level talks on the Syrian crisis during his first foreign trip as Secretary of State, John Kerry's announcement of a non-lethal aid package for the Syrian opposition does not constitute a significant change in U.S. Syria policy. While the current U.S. Syria policy appears to be irritating both U.S. allies and the Syrian opposition, there are several policy options that the Obama administration could consider to ratchet up support for the Syrian rebels.
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Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy Tilts East and West
Senior Saudi Arabian officials used U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s early March visit to reaffirm the pro-Western aspects of their foreign policy, but the Kingdom’s underlying positions on a range of issues are radically different than those of Washington. Developing close ties with China is a rising priority, beginning with growing economic ties. New Saudi-China ties will benefit both states, but also suggest Saudi foreign policy is tilting in new directions.
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Ireland: Still Fragile But Ahead of the Pack
Ireland, it seems, can do no wrong as the country continues on its path to economic redemption. Challenges remain of course, just as they do for the other troubled nations in the EU periphery, but on a relative basis, Ireland is leagues ahead of its peers. Politically, Ireland’s calmness contrasts with the current upheavals in Italy and corruption in Spain. Economically, while Ireland has a long journey ahead, its economy is moving in the right direction - enhanced by structural and financial reforms and a strong commitment to reduce its budget deficit.
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