Despite bottleneck in natural gas supplies, summertime electricity supply looks OK

Apr 30 - Telegraph (Nashua, NH)

Although New England uses more electricity in the summer than in winter due to air conditioning, the regional power grid should not face the near-brownout situation that arose in January because in summertime, power plants don't have to compete with heating contracts to get enough natural gas.

Partly because of that fact, the agency that oversees the power grid says the power supply should be sufficient this summer.

The margin of safety exists partly because of various energy-efficiency measures that the group estimates reduce demand by an amount roughly equal to the output of Seabrook Station nuclear power plant.

"Energy-efficiency measures across the region have reduced our forecasted peak by reducing consumer demand for electricity," said Vamsi Chadalavada, executive vice president and chief operating officer of ISO New England, in a press statement.

"At the same time, we are keeping an eye on other factors that could have an impact on grid operations. Natural gas pipeline maintenance during the summer months could affect natural gas supplies to some power plants, so ISO New England is coordinating with the pipeline companies to ensure that the supply is adequate for power generation during this maintenance period," he said.

ISO New England oversees the electricity grid in the six-state New England area and the wholesale electricity markets.

In its report, it said that under extreme summer weather conditions, including an "extended heat wave of about 95 degrees Fahrenheit," electricity demand would peak. ISO New England forecasts that demand for electricity could peak 28,985 megawatts. (One megawatt can power roughly 1,000 homes.)

Although this would break the all-time record for peak demand of 28,130 MW, set on Aug. 2, 2006, it would not be too much for the power grid to meet, assuming there were no other circumstances such as a power plant breakdown. The absolute maximum output for the region's power plants is 31,760 MW, according to ISO.

New England came close to rolling blackouts in late January and early February during long cold snaps. That was partly because the Pilgrim nuclear power plant in Plymouth, Mass., was shut down due to storm damage.

The big problem this winter, however, was a shortage of natural gas to fuel power plants. More than 52 percent of New England's electricity is generated via natural gas, the highest ratio of any region in the country, and only three pipelines bring natural gas into the region.

During the cold snap, much of the load in those pipelines was taken up for heating, leaving some power plants scrambling.

ISO-New England says that voluntary and instituted energy efficiency practices cut 1,150 MW from its projected peak.

Chadalavada pointed to one other potential problem: high overseas demand for liquefied natural gas, which is used to supplement natural gas shipments by pipelines. This translates into higher prices on the global market, meaning "LNG deliveries into the region may be reduced this summer, which also could affect power system operations," he said.

Last summer, electricity usage peaked on July 17 at 25,880 MW, according to ISO-NE.

David Brooks can be reached at 594-6531 or dbrooks@nashuatelegraph.com. Also, follow Brooks on Twitter (@Telegraph_DaveB).

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