EIA analysis: small gain in crude oil stocks means yet another record

New York - May 8, 2013


U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose 230,000 barrels over the week ended May 3, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday, bringing total commercial crude levels to 395.514 million barrels, a fresh high.


The build was less substantial than that anticipated by analysts, though directionally in line with American Petroleum Institute (API) data released late Tuesday that showed commercial crude stocks increasing 680,000 barrels over the reporting week ended May 3. Analysts polled by Platts earlier on Tuesday expected crude stocks to increase by 1.9 million barrels.


Crude oil imports fell sharply after last week's unexpected surge and refining utilization continued to increase, both likely contributing factors to the relatively muted build on the week.


Stocks rose 1.564 million barrels along the West Coast, bringing the total in the region to its highest level since early February, at 56.244 million barrels. Stocks increased 588,000 barrels along the Atlantic Coast. Crude in-transit from Alaska rose 1.728 million barrels to 4.791 million barrels.


By contrast, stocks dropped 2.61 million barrels along the U.S. Gulf to 192.884 million barrels, partially reversing the previous week's unexpectedly large jump.


Stocks rose by 656,000 barrels in the Midwest, but fell 652,000 barrels at Cushing, Oklahoma – delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude contract – to bring the total there to 49.149 million barrels, their lowest level since the week ended March 15.


Imports dropped sharply, pulling back from the surge seen during the week ended April 26. Nationally, crude oil imports fell by 560,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 7.606 million b/d, with the decline particularly pronounced on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.


Crude oil imports into the Atlantic Coast more than halved over the reporting week ended May 3, dropping 711,000 b/d to 579,000 b/d. Along the Gulf Coast, crude imports dropped 523,000 b/d to 3.679 million b/d.


There were no crude imports from Nigeria for the second time this year.


By contrast, commercial crude imports nearly doubled into the West Coast, rising 674,000 b/d to 1.425 million b/d, their highest level since August 2012.


The decline in crude oil imports was coupled with a sharp increase in refinery utilization across the country. Nationally, crude oil inputs rose 470,000 b/d to 15.180 million b/d as refinery utilization climbed 2.6 percentage points to 87% of total capacity.


Refinery utilization rose in all five reporting districts, with the sharpest changes seen on the Atlantic Coast (up 2.9 percentage points to 92.6%), the U.S. Gulf (up 3.1 percentage points to 88.9%) and the West Coast (up 4.5 percentage points to 82.6%).


U.S. domestic crude production rose 57,000 b/d to 7.369 million b/d.


U.S. distillate stocks rose over the reporting week ended May 3, climbing 1.812 million barrels to 117.564 million barrels amid stagnant demand and increased production.


Distillate inventories jumped 2.104 million barrels along the Atlantic Coast and slid 551,000 barrels on the West Coast, while remaining broadly unchanged across the rest of the country.


Implied demand* for distillates remained largely unchanged on the week, down a marginal 1,000 b/d to 3.664 million b/d, though production jumped 232,000 b/d to 4.532 million b/d.


U.S. gasoline stocks fell 910,000 barrels to 215.074 million barrels, their lowest level since end-November. Midwest stocks fell 1.342 million barrels and 603,000 barrels in the Rocky Mountains. They ticked upwards 919,000 barrels on the Gulf Coast and 298,000 on the West Coast.


Stocks dipped 182,000 barrels on the Atlantic Cost – home of the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract – to 61.543 million barrels. This marks the first drop in Atlantic Coast gasoline stocks since the week ended March 29.


Gasoline imports rose 152,000 b/d to 780,000 b/d over the reporting week ended May 3, with Atlantic Coast imports clocking in at 720,000 b/d. U.S. production, by contrast, slid 113,000 b/d to 8.673 million b/d while implied demand* ticked upwards by 30,000 b/d to 8.445 million b/d.


Tuesday's API data showed a 186,000 barrel fall in gasoline stocks and a 1.096 million-barrel build in distillates, while analysts polled by Platts had forecast a 750,000 barrel fall in gasoline inventories and a 1 million-barrel climb in distillates.


* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.


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