Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/1450Z from Region 1756 (S20E27). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
475 km/s at 23/1933Z, however ACE/SWEPAM data became suspect due to
proton contamination from the 22 May M5 flare. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
23/1656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0949Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1660 pfu at 23/0650Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 22/2105Z and the
event ended at 23/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit were also suspect due to proton contamination.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 May). Protons are expected to remain above threshold on day
one (24 May), are likely to cross threshold on day two (25 May) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 May).
III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 99/70/30
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 135
Predicted 24 May-26 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 23 May 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 011/015-014/020-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/50/25
Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX3
Serial Number: 16
Issue Time: 2013 May 23 1811 UTC
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0330 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 23 0650 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 23 1040 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1660 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2016
Issue Time: 2013 May 24 1612 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2013 May 24 1555 UTC
Station: GOES15
Radio Events Observed 22 May 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
1310 1313 140 1310 0003
2224 2224 320 2224 0000
2231 2231 110 2231 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
Radio Events Observed 23 May 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
1544 1606 130 1552 0022
1610 1616 100 1613 0006
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX2
Serial Number: 34
Issue Time: 2013 May 24 0958 UTC
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2013 May 22 1730 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 23 0650 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 24 0435 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1660 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
|