Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/0205Z from Region 1739 (N12E30). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May,
09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
595 km/s at 06/0918Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/0816Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0742Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 131
Predicted   07 May-09 May 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        06 May 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  008/008-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For April 29-May 5

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred on 03 May  because of a flare from Region 1739.  R1 levels were reached on 02 May (Region 1731) and again on 05 May Region (1739).

Outlook For May 6-12

There is a chance for radio blackouts equal to or greater than the R1 level through the forecast period.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services 
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More 
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov