Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/0523Z from Region 1736 (S08W78). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (10 May) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (11 May,
12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at
09/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (12 May).
III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 35/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 128
Predicted 10 May-12 May 125/115/115
90 Day Mean 09 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
Radio Events Observed 09 May 2013
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0310 0310 100 0310 0000
0519 0519 700 0519 0000
1713 1714 100 1714 0001
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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