Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
13/1605Z from Region 1748(N12E86). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15
May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
395 km/s at 13/0623Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1650Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0514Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 501 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 May).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 150
Predicted   14 May-16 May 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        13 May 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  003/005-010/015-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/25

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For May 6-12

R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 10 May from Region 1745 and on 12 May from a region beyond the east limb.

Outlook For May 13-19

R1 (minor) and R2 (moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a chance for R3 (strong) radio blackouts or greater during the outlook period.

Radio Events Observed 13 May 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0208   0213    920          0212        0005  
1536   1536    100          1536        0000  
1815   1816    820          1815        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales