Charlottesville, Va. (Platts)--14May2013/344 pm EDT/1944 GMT

Even with the economy rebounding, peak electricity demand is expected to be 0.3% lower than last summer in the Northeast and eastern Canada, according to a forecast issued Tuesday by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council.

The NPCC attributed the 2,000 MW drop to the region's strong push for conservation, energy efficiency and demand response, in its 2013 Summer Reliability Assessment Summary Report.

"With the resource fleet being about the same, with the lower projected demand, the expectation is that the region will have significant supplies of electricity throughout the summer," said Edward Schwerdt, NPCC President and CEO, in an interview.

NPCC evaluates thousands of simulated weather and system conditions in New England, New York, Ontario, Quebec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The organization is one of eight regional entities that coordinate grid reliability in North America.

In all, summer peak for the region is expected to be 110,635 MW. The organization forecasts New England's peak demand to be 26,690 MW; New York's 33,279 MW; Ontario's 23,275 MW; Quebec's 21,115 MW; and the Maritime Provinces' 3,176 MW.

The region has become known in recent years for its aggressive drive to reduce energy use. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy last year ranked five Northeast states among the top 10 nationally for energy efficiency. Massachusetts scored first in the national score card. Meanwhile, Ontario has installed smart meters for all electric customers, introduced time-of-use pricing and engaged in other energy saving endeavors.

In its forecast, NPCC also found that the region will have a significant operable capacity margin, which is the supply available even if unexpected and random events occur. NPCC pegged operable capacity at 12% for the summer week when demand normally peaks.

--Lisa Wood, newsdesk@platts.com
--Edited by Derek Sands, derek.sands@platts.com

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