Mortgage Rates Preview : Today’s Mortgage Rates Are The Lowest In 20 Weeks, But This Could Be The End

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As mortgage rates drop, refinance opportunities open; purchasing power grows

Mortgage markets worsened last week, bucking this season's trend toward lower rates. Mortgage rates climbed for all loan types including HARP 2, jumbo loans, purchase loans, and FHA and VA Streamline Refinances.

Does this mean the end of low mortgage rates forever? Maybe it does.

With a host of economic data set for release this week, market sentiment may be  changing. Should you lock your mortgage rate now, then, or take a chance rates will resume moving lower? The answer depends on your perspective.

Skip to today's live mortgage rates.

Freddie Mac : 30-Year Fixed Drops To 4.10%

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of 125 banks nationwide, mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan fell 0.03 percentage points last week, falling to 4.10%, on average.

To lock the rate requires 0.7 discount points to be paid at closing where 0.7 discount points is a one-time cost equal to 0.7% of your mortgage loan size. This adds $700 in closing cost per $100,000 borrowed.

Discount points are sometimes tax-deductible. They're also optional -- not all applicants will pay them. For loans without discount points, mortgage rates are higher.

For prime borrowers, zero-point conventional rates are nearer to 4.375%. 

In addition to whether discount points are paid, mortgage rates can also be affected by your individual loan traits.

Mortgages for 2-unit, 3-unit, and 4-unit homes, for example, are subject to mortgage rate adjustments of up to 0.25 percentage points; as are loans for second homes and investment properties, including vacation properties and condotels.

Freddie Mac's survey is a "general" rate. Your actual quoted rate may vary. Across all loan types, though, mortgage rates have dropped :

  • Conventional mortgage rates are at a 20-week low
  • FHA mortgage rates are at a 19-week low
  • VA mortgage rates are a 19-week low

USDA loans have also moved to multi-month lows, helping home buyers in non-urban areas get access to some of the lowest mortgage rates available.

With mortgage rates close to 4%, homeowners who missed their prior opportunity to refinance now get their second chance. The typical U.S. household now saves more than 1 percentage point off their rate via a refinance.

Furthermore, low rates have boosted home buyer purchasing power. As compared to September, today's buyers have six percent more purchasing power. If your purchase price was capped at $400,000 in September, you can now buy for $424,000.

Get a free, personalized mortgage rate quote here.

Week Ahead : Lock Now, Or Guess For Lower Rates?

When mortgage rates drop, it's common to wonder whether you should lock today's mortgage rate, or wait for rates to fall. It's also a challenging question to answer. Predicting the future can be difficult.

This week, however, the future is a little more clouded than usual. This is because the October Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released this Friday and the data is hugely important with respect to the Federal Reserve's stimulus programs, which means it's hugely important to Wall Street, too.

A stronger-than-expected jobs report could mean the end of low rates for good.

In addition, the weekly economic calendar is stocked with speeches from Federal Reserve members. This, too, can impact the future of mortgage rates because investors listen closely what Fed members say, and often act on what they hear.

The week's complete economic calendar looks like this :

  • Monday : Federal Reserve Governor James Powell speaks; Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speaks; Factory Orders 
  • Tuesday : Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker speaks; San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks; 
  • Wednesday : Leading Economic Indicators; Cleveland Federal Reserve President Sandra Pianalto speaks
  • Thursday : Initial Jobless Claims; GDP; Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein speaks
  • Friday : Non-Farm Payrolls; Personal Income and Outlays; Consumer Sentiment; Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart speaks; San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams; Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks

A few notes on the week.

First, mortgage rates will become increasingly erratic as the week progresses, which reflects the expected effect of Friday's jobs report on the future of QE3 -- a mortgage rate-suppressing stimulus program from the Federal Reserve.

QE3 is why mortgage rates are persistently low nationwide -- from Florida to Washington State and everywhere in between.

QE3 is economic stimulus. Via QE3, the Fed artificially lowers U.S. mortgage rates by purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the open market. This, in turn, spurs the U.S. housing market and construction jobs, while promoting the refinance of existing mortgages. This, too, creates jobs and promotes consumer spending.

Currently, the Fed makes $40 billion in MBS purchases each month. 

The Federal Reserve has said it's ready to start reducing the size and scope of QE3, but only after the group believes the U.S. economy can withstand such a "taper". Not surprisingly, the labor market is among the first places the Fed looks for proof of economic strength.

This is why Friday's jobs report is so important to the future of U.S. mortgage rates.

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that jobs created in October in excess of analyst expectations, mortgage rates will rise -- maybe by a lot. Conversely, if the jobs market appears to be weak or slowing, mortgage rates should drop.

And, this month, the data will be especially murky.

October's Non-Farm Payrolls report will reflect the effect of the government's 16-day shutdown at the start of last month. Economist expect to see 120,000 net new jobs created last month, but there are guesses of as much as +168,000 jobs and as low as -300,000. 

Given this huge range of values, it's risky to "float" a mortgage rate into Friday's jobs market release. Wall Street is prone to knee-jerk reactions and rates could move suddenly -- by 0.25 percentage points or more.

Note that the week "ends" with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on panel in Washington. The chairman may use some of his allotted time to address the October jobs report and its expected effect on QE3.

Compare Today's Live Mortgage Rates 

For today's U.S. home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers, the last few weeks have been a gift. Mortgage rates are down which has helped unlock refinance opportunities nationwide, and made homes more affordable in every U.S. market.

Don't miss your chance to refinance again. Get a live mortgage rate quote and see the savings for yourself. Mortgage rates can be found online, for free, with no obligation or cost.

Click here to get today's live mortgage rates.

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. You can also connect with Dan on Twitter and on Google+.

 

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