Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0415Z from Region 1897 (S18W30). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov,
21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 475 km/s at
18/0514Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    40/40/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 163
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

Radio Events Observed 18 Nov 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0016   0016    100          0016        0000  
0409   0410    160          0409        0001  
0507   0507    150          0507        0000  
0706   0706    100          0706        0000  
1039   1039    100          1039        0000  
1748   1750    360          1749        0002  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1046   1054    230          1052      

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-47
2013 November 17 at 5:51 p.m. MST (2013 November 18 0051 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For November 11-17

R1 (minor) solar radio blackouts were observed on 11, 13 and 15 - 17 November due to solar flares from active Regions 1897, 1899 and 1900.

Outlook For November 18-24

A continued chance for R1 (minor) radio blackouts exists through the outlook period.