Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1351Z from Region 1877 (S13W95). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov,
03 Nov).

30 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
29/2154Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 31/1631Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1840Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
30/2115Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 143
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10

Radio Events Observed 31 Oct 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0219   0219    510          0219        0000  
1527   1527    330          1527        0000  
1751   1752    140          1751        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.