Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0544Z from Region 1884 (S12W39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
04/1326Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2101Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 147
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/20

Radio Events Observed 04 Nov 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0643   0643    100          0643        0000  
1043   1043    100          1043        0000  
1100   1100    140          1100        0000  
1238   1238    480          1238        0000  
1729   1730    340          1729        0001  
1952   1953    530          1952        0001  
2158   2158    150          2158        0000  
2210   2210    320          2210        0000  
2313   2316    120          2313        0003  
2322   2322    100          2322        0000  
2339   2339    110          2339        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.