Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13
Nov, 14 Nov).
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/0514Z from Region 1890 (S12W28). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
588 km/s at 10/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0330Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0334Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 686 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (14 Nov).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 164
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  012/012-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10


SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-46
2013 November 11 at 12:05 a.m. MST (2013 November 11 0705 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For November 4-10

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts occurred on 05-08 November due to flare activity from active sunspot Regions 1890 and 1882.

Category R3 (Strong) radio blackouts occurred on 05, 08, and 10 November due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1890.

Outlook For November 11-17

Category R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a chance for R3 (Strong) from 11-17 November due to potential flare activity from Region 1890 and old Region 1875.

There is a chance for Category S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms from 11-16 November due to potential solar flare activity from active sunspot Region 1890.

Radio Events Observed 11 Nov 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0044   0045    210          0045        0001  
0936   0936    270          0936        0000  
1151   1151    130          1151        0000  
1409   1410    1700         1409        0001  
1458   1458    140          1458        0000  
1642   1642    510          1642        0000  
2215   2215    110          2215        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.



NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales