Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov). IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/0514Z from Region 1890 (S12W28). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
588 km/s at 10/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0330Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0334Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 686 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (14 Nov).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 164
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 012/012-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/10
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-46 2013 November 11 at 12:05 a.m. MST (2013 November 11 0705 UTC) **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For November 4-10 Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts occurred on 05-08 November due to flare activity from active sunspot Regions 1890 and 1882. Category R3 (Strong) radio blackouts occurred on 05, 08, and 10 November due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1890. Outlook For November 11-17 Category R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a chance for R3 (Strong) from 11-17 November due to potential flare activity from Region 1890 and old Region 1875. There is a chance for Category S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms from 11-16 November due to potential solar flare activity from active sunspot Region 1890. Radio Events Observed 11 Nov 2013 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0044 0045 210 0045 0001 0936 0936 270 0936 0000 1151 1151 130 1151 0000 1409 1410 1700 1409 0001 1458 1458 140 1458 0000 1642 1642 510 1642 0000 2215 2215 110 2215 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |