Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z100 to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1111Z from Region 1893 (S13, L=100). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
20/2103Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 141
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

Radio Events Observed 21 Nov 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1219   1219    150          1219        0000  
1223   1223    100          1223        0000  
1424   1425    120          1425        0001  
1537   1537    130          1537        0000  
1635   1635    120          1635        0000  
1652   1654    180          1652        0002  
1721   1721    160          1721        0000  
2102   2102    890          2102        0000  
2129   2130    410          2129        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.