Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest event of the period was a C2 x-ray event observed at
25/1149Z from Region 1904 (N12W95). With the departure of Region 1904
there are now 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days two and three (27
Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
24/2128Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    20/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 119
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  007/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/10

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For November 18-24

Category R3-Strong radio blackouts were observed on 19 November due to flare activity from active solar Region 1893.

Category R1-Minor radio blackouts were observed on 21-23 November due to flare activity from active solar regions 1893 and 1904.

Outlook For November 25-December 1

No space weather storms are expected.