FORTY YEARS
AFTER
THE
1973
ARAB
OIL
EMBARGO
Fossil Fuels' Dominance Weakening
Nuclear Power Stagnating
Major Gains in Energy Efficiency
Rapid Growth for Solar, Wind, and Biofuels
For Release: Wednesday - October 16, 2013
Contact: Ken Bossong (301-270-6477 x.11)
Washington DC
-- October 17 marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the 1973 Arab
Oil Embargo -- an event that arguably launched the United States'
ongoing pursuit of a national energy policy.
Forty years ago, the U.S. economy was dominated by fossil fuels (i.e.,
oil, coal, natural gas) which accounted for 93% of the nation's energy
consumption. Petroleum - more than 30% of which was imported - accounted
for almost half of fossil fuel consumption with roughly half used in the
transportation sector and 17% burned to generate electricity.
In 1973, conventional hydropower generated almost 15% of the nation's
electricity and provided 3.8% of its total energy consumption. Biomass
claimed a 2% share of the nation's energy use but, like geothermal,
provided less than 1/10th of a percent of the country's electrical
generation. Energy produced by solar, wind, and biofuels was essentially
non-existent.
The 42 nuclear reactors operating in 1973 provided 4.5% of U.S.
electrical generation and satisfied just over 1% of the nation's total
energy demand.
Four decades later, U.S. energy use in some areas appears to have
changed only modestly. Fossil fuels, for example, still dominate and, in
2013, will account for roughly 82% of total energy consumption.
However, other energy technologies have experienced significant growth.
Nuclear power has increased nine-fold and now provides over 19% of U.S.
electrical generation - roughly 8.2% of total U.S. energy use.
The mix of renewable energy technologies (i.e., biofuels, biomass,
geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) now accounts for 10% of energy
consumption, 12% of domestic energy production, and 14% of net
electrical generation.
Perhaps most significantly, major gains in energy efficiency mean that
the energy intensity of the American economy today - measured as energy
use per unit of GDP - is less than half of what it was forty years ago.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY:
Over the past four decades, U.S. energy use has increased by 28%
from 75.6 quads in 1973 to about 97 quads in 2013. However, during that
same period the nation's population has grown by 50% (from ~210 million
in 1973 to ~315 million in 2013) and the nation's GDP (constant prices)
grew from less than $6 trillion in 1973 to about $16 trillion in 2013.
Thus energy intensity, measured as energy used (thousand Btu)/real
dollar of GDP (2009 chained dollar), dropped by more than half from
13.97 in 1973 to 6.15 in 2012 due to a combination of energy efficiency
legislation, agency regulations, price signals, technological advances,
and changes in consuming habits.
Had energy growth continued at the rates experience after World War II
until 1973, energy use in the U.S. today would be at least 40% higher
than it actually is making energy efficiency, in effect, the nation's
largest "energy resource."
Yet, study-after-study suggests that the United States has still not
picked all of the low-hanging fruit, much less implemented the more
complex structural changes that could secure far greater gains in energy
efficiency. Some analysts argue that energy intensity of the U.S.
economy could be further reduced in the near term by 30% or more using
cost-effective, currently-available technologies.
For example, after more than two decades of politically-based
stagnation, gains are now finally being realized in auto fuel efficiency
that could ultimately lead to a doubling of mpg, especially as hybrid,
all-electric, fuel-cell and other alternative vehicles expand their
market share.
A complete shift in the lighting market to compact fluorescents and LEDs
could theoretically cut energy use in that sector by 75% or more. New
buildings can be economically constructed that use 30% less energy (some
would argue 50% or more) while existing buildings can often be upgraded
to achieve gains almost as large.
Far greater use of cogeneration and waste heat recovery as well as smart
grid and new transmission line technologies could greatly reduce energy
losses in electrical generation, which typically wastes nearly
two-thirds of the fuel consumed.
RENEWABLE ENERGY:
In 1973, renewable energy sources (i.e., biofuels, biomass, geothermal,
hydropower, solar, wind) accounted for 6.9% of domestic energy
production comprised of hydropower (65%) and biomass (35%) with a trace
contribution from geothermal. There was essentially no contribution from
biofuels, solar, or wind. In the electricity sector, hydropower
accounted for 99.2% of all power generated by renewable sources.
By 2013, renewables accounted for almost 12% of domestic energy
production with a mix of hydropower (29.7%), biomass (25.4%), biofuels
(20.0%), wind (19.3%), solar (3.2%), and geothermal (2.4%). By mid-2013,
renewables accounted for 14.2% of U.S. net electrical generation, with
almost half coming from non-hydro renewables.
Renewables have now emerged as a major contributor to the nation's
overall energy supply. Yet, it can be argued they are still well short
of their real potential. For example, in 1980, a lengthy, inter-agency
analysis conducted by the Carter Administration concluded that
renewables could meet 20% of the nation's energy needs by the year 2000
(and some members of the task force argued a goal of 25% was doable).
Yet, 33 years later, renewables have only reached the half-way point of
the 2000 goal.
Recent growth rates and price drops do suggest, though, that the use of
renewables could greatly accelerate in the near-term. Between 2003 and
2012, for example, energy produced from wind increased by a factor of
12, biofuels output grew more than five-fold, and solar generation
quadrupled. Geothermal also expanded by more than 30%. Only hydropower
and biomass (other than biofuels) remained essentially unchanged.
Photovoltaic (PV) cell costs today are 1% of what they were in 1973.
Wind energy costs have declined by as much as 50% in just the past four
years. Combined with recent developments in a number of energy storage
technologies, wind and solar are now either at, or close to, "grid
parity" with fossil fuels -- and, in some instances, actually cheaper.
Moreover, the first significant amounts of cellulosic biofuels have been
produced in just the past two years with production levels expected to
ramp up significantly in the near term.
NUCLEAR POWER:
In 1973, the U.S. had 42 operating nuclear reactors that generated 4.5%
of the nation's electricity. In response to the oil embargo,
then-President Nixon called for the construction of 1,000 nuclear
reactors. The resulting expansion in the 1970s came to a screeching halt
with the 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident and subsequently
resumed at a far-slower pace. By 2010, nuclear power had peaked when 104
reactors provided 11.3% of domestic energy production and 19.6% of the
nation's electricity.
Nuclear generation has dropped each year since then and is likely to see
further declines - at least for the next several years - in light of the
recently announced closures of five reactors (Crystal River, Kewaunee,
San Onofre-2, San Onofre-3, and Vermont Yankee). While five new reactors
are now under construction, their eventual contribution to the nation's
electricity supply (assuming they are ever completed) may well be
off-set by retirements of other older, uneconomic, and arguably troubled
reactors (e.g., Oyster Creek, Pilgrim, Indian Point, Fitzpatrick,
Davis-Besse).
PETROLEUM: The total amount of oil used in 1973 (34.8 quads) has changed little over the past four decades (34.7 quads used in 2012) but its share of the nation's energy mix has declined from 46% to 36%. Notably, oil use for electrical generation has changed from 17% in 1973 to less than 1% in 2013. Roughly half the oil used in 1973 was for transportation; it is over 70% today.
Net oil imports (imports minus exports) rose from roughly 30% in 1973 to
a high of over 60% in 2005 and have since been declining; the U.S.
relied on net imports for about 40% of the petroleum (crude oil and
petroleum products) that was consumed in 2012.
Contributing to this decline has been:
**increased domestic oil production,
**an increased use of biofuels (primarily ethanol) - now representing
about 10% of the nation's motor fuel supply, and
**improvements in motor vehicle fuel economy (e.g., from an average for
all motor vehicles of 11.9 miles per gallon in 1973 to 17.5 mpg in 2011;
further, the average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating of purchased new
vehicles in August 2013 reached 24.9 miles per gallon).
NATURAL GAS:
Domestic consumption of natural gas has increased by 26% over the past
four decades but remained at about 29% of the total energy mix. Its use
in the electricity-generating sector has tripled since 1973 and its
share of net electrical generation has increased from 18.3% in 1973 to
26.2% in 2013. (By comparison, electrical generation more than doubled
between 1973 and 2013.)
COAL:
Domestic production of coal has increased by over 40% over the
past four decades (13.99 quads in 1973 to 19.79 quads in 2013) but its
share of the nation's overall energy consumption has remained relatively
unchanged (17.1% in 1973 vs. 17.6% in 2012). Further, its role in
electrical generation has dipped in recent years from about 45% in 1973
to about 39% in 2013, reflecting increased competition from both natural
gas and renewables.
CO2 EMISSIONS:
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy consumption today are about
15% higher than they were 1973. The 2013 figure actually represents a
drop of 11% from the peak level recorded in 2007 with the decline
attributable to the economic recession, some displacement of coal by
natural gas, increased use of renewables, and improving energy
efficiency.
The recent downward trend, however, is almost certainly not large enough
or fast enough to counter global increases in CO2 emissions or to
substantially reduce the risks posed by climate change.
Coal accounted for about 25% of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in
1973 but its share had risen to almost 30% by 2012 with actual CO2
emissions from coal rising 37.3% over the past four decades.
By comparison, petroleum was responsible for ~40% of CO2
emissions in 2012, natural gas for ~24%, and biofuels/biomass for ~5%.
# # # # # # # # #
The SUN DAY
Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded
in 1993 to promote sustainable energy technologies as cost-effective
alternatives to nuclear power and fossil fuels. Its executive director,
Ken Bossong, has been working on energy policy issues since the time of
the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.
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