Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/0813Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct,
24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 408 km/s at
21/1942Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1703Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/1416Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3951 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (22 Oct, 24
Oct) and quiet levels on day two (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 136
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  009/008-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2096
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 17 0930 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3951 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant 

charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Radio Events Observed 21 Oct 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0257   0258    1800         0258        0001  
0112   0112    270          0112        0000  
0840   0842    2100         0840        0002  
0921   0922    2300         0921        0001  
1228   1228    100          1228        0000  
1419   1419    100          1419        0000  
1429   1430    810          1429        0001  
1904   1904    420          1904        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.