Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
14/1315Z from Region 1865 (S22W10). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct,
17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
514 km/s at 14/1930Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/0856Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/0855Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Oct, 17 Oct)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 125
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  012/015-008/010-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-42
2013 October 13 at 7:54 p.m. MDT (2013 October 14 0154 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For October 7-13

R1 (minor) radio blackouts occurred on 09, 11 and 13 October.  G1(minor) geomagnetic storms occurred on 08-09 October.

Outlook For October 14-20

There is a chance for R1 (minor) or greater radio blackouts through 20 October, and a slight chance for S1 (minor) solar radiation storms through 20 October.  There is also a slight chance for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms on 15-17 October.

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 15 0925 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 15 1025 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 15 0902 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Radio Events Observed 14 Oct 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
2013   2013    100          2013        0000  
2018   2018    110          2018        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.