Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1541Z from Region 1861 (S08W69). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Oct) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (19 Oct,
20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 16/2209Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1618Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1445Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5893 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    30/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 136
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 135/130/120
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2092
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 17 0930 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 5893 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.