Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
28/0203Z from Region 1875 (N07W79). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IA.(yesterday)  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
25/1503Z from Region 1882 (S08E59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at
28/0540Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0143Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0355Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 28/2020Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 418 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Oct).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 160
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  007/008-005/012-017/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/45
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/35
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 29 0820 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 29 0920 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 29 0722 UTC
Radio Events Observed 28 Oct 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0026   0026    100          0026        0000 
0030   0030    110          0030        0000 
0033   0033    100          0033        0000 
0211   0211    120          0211        0000 
0212   0212    100          0212        0000 
0217   0217    110          0217        0000 
0225   0225    100          0225        0000 
0234   0235    130          0234        0001 
0237   0237    100          0237        0000 
0248   0249    260          0248        0001 
0252   0252    150          0252        0000 
0300   0300    100          0300        0000 
0305   0305    120          0305        0000 
0310   0310    100          0310        0000 
0752   0752    110          0752        0000 
1123   1123    130          1123        0000 
1436   1436    100          1436        0000 
1506   1613    22000        1511        0067 
2020   2020    110          2020        0000 
2056   2056    120          2056        0000 
2136   2136    100          2136        0000 
2226   2226    110          2226        0000 
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0310   0438    380          0417  

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-44
2013 October 27 at 5:59 p.m. MDT (2013 October 27 2359 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For October 21-27

Category R3 (Strong) radio blackouts were observed on 25 Oct due to flare activity from active Region 1882.

Category R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 24 Oct due to flare activity from active Region 1877.

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed from 24 - 27 Oct due to flare activity from active Regions 1875, 1877 , 1882 and 1884.

Outlook For October 28-November 3

Category R1 - R2 (Minor - Moderate) radio blackouts are likely throughout the forecast period due to possible flare activity from active Regions 1875, 1877, 1882 and 1884.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 28 Oct with a chance for continued G1 activity on 29 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs associated with the flare activity observed from 24 - 26 Oct.


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales