WEC warns of "stark energy future"
October 16, 2013 | By
Barbara Vergetis Lundin
The world will face several significant challenges in balancing global energy needs and addressing the energy trilemma over the next four decades. That is according to the World Energy Council (WEC) based on a three-year study conducted by more than 60 experts in 30 countries.
"While there will be opportunities in the future for a range of technology solutions, the ultimate issue is that demand continues to grow at an unsustainable rate," said Karl Rose, senior director of policies and scenarios, WEC. "One of the most significant findings in the report is the strong regional variation of priorities and solutions in the energy system. Too often we look at the world as one entity and seek global solutions but the reality is very different and this needs to be recognized." Using two contrasting policy scenarios, the research found that total primary energy supply could increase by 61 percent by 2050 under one scenario and 27 percent under the other, highlighting the impact that choosing one policy solutions or the other can have on the energy sector. By 2050, the use of solar for electricity generation is set to increase by up to 225 times over 2010 levels. Currently solar power only accounts for just over 34 TWh/year in the electricity generation mix, but it could provide somewhere between 2,980 TWh and 7,740 TWh in 2050. This equates to between $2,950 billion and $9,660 billion in solar investment, representing the largest potential investment area of any renewable energy resource. In order to cater to the rising electricity needs generated by economic development to 2050, the WEC estimates that the world will need to invest from $19 trillion to more than $25 trillion for electricity generation alone, depending on the scenario, with the majority of investments required being directed towards solar PV, hydro and wind. While both scenarios see a significant increase in energy access, the rate of increase will remain insufficient. Globally, between 730 million and 880 million people will still be without access to electricity in 2030, predominantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, and this figure would only decrease to 319 million and 530 million people in 2050, according to the report. Africa will face the biggest electrification challenge. Asia will account for the largest percentage of total primary energy consumption by 2050, at around 48 percent compared with 30 percent for Europe and North America. "At a time of unprecedented uncertainty these scenarios provide a stark warning to our energy future [highlighting] the need for clear and robust policy frameworks that reduce political risk, the need for urgent focus in technology development and demonstration in electricity storage and CCS, and the need to manage our carbon budget and minimize our water footprint," said Christoph Frei, secretary general, WEC. "Our findings challenge our understanding of and current ability to deliver the resilient infrastructure that we need to face the changes we expect to occur over the coming decades." For more: © 2013 FierceMarkets. All rights reserved. http://www.fierceenergy.com http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/wec-warns-stark-energy-future/2013-10-16 |