40th anniversary of the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo

From: Ken Bossong, SUN DAY Campaign (301-270-6477 x.11)

I am writing to alert you to the upcoming 40th anniversary of the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo -- which may afford an opportunity for your organization to discuss the nation's energy situation today and the advances made by energy efficiency and renewable energy over the past four decades.

The exact date of the anniversary is roughly October 16 -- although there were events in the days leading up to and then following that date which could also be viewed as the "start" of the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. [The History Channel, for example, suggests the correct date is October 17 - see: http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/opec-states-declare-oil-embargo]

For your information, I've attached a Wikipedia "timeline" of events associated with the embargo -- so you can decide for yourselves which date is the real starting point.

I have also attached seven tables of data that I've compiled from materials provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and I hope to develop more info over the next two weeks which I would be happy to share if that is of interest.

In addition, at the end of this memo, I have enclosed some summary information comparing the status of energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear power, oil, coal, and natural gas today vs. 1973. Again, most of this is based on information from various reports issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Using this information, or any other info that you may have, you may wish to consider taking advantage of this anniversary to sponsor one or more activities such as any of the following:

** issue a news release or host a news conference;

**tweet an announcement or prepare an article for your web page or blog;

**write an op-ed or letter-to-the-editor to your local newspaper(s);

**schedule interviews with local broadcast media;

**produce a study or report;

**host a tour of local sustainable energy facilities or businesses;

**urge Members of your congressional delegation to make "one-minute" or "floor" statements;

**announce a new call-to-action or sustainable energy policy initiative;

**meet with local or state government officials to propose new strategies;

In addition, the American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE) may be hosting a webinar on October 16 to discuss the significance of the anniversary and provide an overview of changes in the nation's energy situation during the past four decades. Details about the webinar should be posted soon on ACORE's web page: www.acore.org.

Again, if you would like to receive any updates on the information attached and provided below, please let me know. Those requesting the additional info will likely hear from me again on or about October 7.

Thank you.

# # # # # # # #

ENERGY EFFICIENCY: Over the past four decades, U.S. energy use has increased by 28% from 75.6 quads in 1973 to 97.2 quads in 2013. However, during that same period the nation's population has grown by more than 50% (~210 million in 1973 to ~315 million in 2013) and the nation's GDP (constant prices) grew from less than $6 trillion in 1973 to about $16 trillion in 2013. Thus energy intensity, measured as energy used (thousand Btu)/real dollar of GDP (2009 chained dollar), dropped by more than half from 13.97 in 1973 to 6.15 in 2012 due to a combination of energy efficiency legislation, regulation, price signals, and technological advances. Had energy growth continued at the rates experience after World War II until 1973, energy use in the U.S. today would be at least 40% higher than it actually is making energy efficiency, in effect, the nation's largest "energy resource."

RENEWABLE ENERGY: In 1973, renewable energy sources (i.e., biofuels, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) accounted for 6.9% of domestic energy production comprised of hydropower (65%) and biomass (35%) with a trace contribution from geothermal. There was essentially no contribution from biofuels, solar, or wind. In the electricity sector, hydropower accounted for 99.2% of all power generated by renewable sources. By 2013, renewables accounted for almost 12% of domestic energy production with a mix of hydropower (29.7%), biomass (25.4%), biofuels (20.0%), wind (19.3%), solar (3.2%), and geothermal (2.4%). By mid-2013, renewables accounted for 14.2% of U.S. net electrical generation, with almost half coming from non-hydro renewables.

NUCLEAR POWER: In 1973, the U.S. had 42 operating nuclear reactors that generated 4.5% of the nation's electricity. Nuclear power peaked in 2010 when 104 reactors provided 11.3% of domestic energy production and 19.6% of the nation's electricity. Nuclear generation has dropped each year since then and is likely to see further declines in light of the recently announced closures of five reactors (Crystal River, Kewaunee, San Onofre-2, San Onofre-3, and Vermont Yankee).

PETROLEUM: The amount of oil used in 1973 (34.8 quads) has changed little over the past four decades (34.7 quads used in 2012) but its share of the nation's energy mix has declined from 46% to 36%. Notably, oil use for electrical generation has changed from 17% in 1973 to less than 1% in 2013. Roughly half the oil used in 1973 was for transportation; it is over 70% today.

Net oil imports (imports minus exports) rose from roughly 30% in 1973 to a high of over 60% in 2005 and have since been declining; the U.S. relied on net imports for about 40% of the petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) that was consumed in 2012. Contributing to this decline has been:

** increased domestic oil production,

**an increased use of biofuels (primarily ethanol) - now representing about 10% of the nation's motor fuel supply, and

**improvements in motor vehicle fuel economy (e.g., from an average for all motor vehicles of 11.9 miles per gallon in 1973 to 17.5 mpg in 2011; further, the average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating of purchased new vehicles in August 2013 reached 24.9 miles per gallon).

COAL: Domestic production of coal has increased by over 40% over the past four decades (13.99 quads in 1973 to 19.79 quads in 2013) but its share of the nation's overall energy consumption has remained relatively unchanged (17.1% in 1973 vs. 17.6% in 2012). However, its role in electrical generation has dipped in recent years from about 45% in 1973 to about 39% in 2013. Coal accounted for about 25% of carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in 1973 but its share had risen to almost 30% by 2012 with actual CO2 emissions from coal rising 37.3% over the past four decades. (By comparison, petroleum was responsible for ~40% of CO2 emissions in 2012, natural gas for ~24%, and biofuels/biomass for ~5%.)

NATURAL GAS: Domestic consumption of natural gas has increased by 26% over the past four decades but remained at about 29% of the total energy mix. Its use in electrical generation has tripled since 1973, increasing from 18.3% to 26.2% in 2013.

Chronology - 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo

January 1973—The 1973–1974 stock market crash begins, as a result of inflation pressure, the Nixon Shock and the collapsing monetary system.
August 23, 1973—In preparation for the Yom Kippur War, Saudi King Faisal and Egyptian president Anwar Sadat meet in Riyadh and secretly negotiate an accord whereby the Arabs will use the "oil weapon" as part of the upcoming military conflict.^[19]
October 6 – Egypt and Syria attack Israeli occupied lands in Sinai and Golan Heights on Yom Kippur, starting the Yom Kippur War.
night of October 8 - Israel goes on full nuclear alert. Sec. Kissinger is notified a few hours later the morning of October 9. United States begins to resupply Israel.
October 8 – 10—OPEC negotiations with major oil companies to revise the 1971 Tehran price agreement fail.
October 12— The United States initiates Operation Nickel Grass, an overt strategic airlift operation to provide replacement weapons and supplies to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. This followed similar Soviet moves to supply the Arab side.
October 16 – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Qatar unilaterally raise posted prices by 17% to $3.65 per barrel and announce production cuts.^[20]
October 17—OAPEC oil ministers agree to use oil as a weapon to influence the West's support of Israel in the Yom Kippur war. They recommend an embargo against non-complying states and mandate a cut in exports.
October 19—US President Richard Nixon requests Congress to appropriate $2.2 billion in emergency aid to Israel. This decision triggered a collective Arab response.^[14] Libya immediately proclaims an embargo on oil exports to the United States;^[15] Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil producing states follow suit the next day.^[15]
October 26—The Yom Kippur War ends.
November 5—Arab producers announce a 25% output cut. A further 5% cut is threatened.
November 23—The Arab embargo is extended to Portugal, Rhodesia, and South Africa.
November 27—U.S. President Richard Nixon signs the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act authorizing price, production, allocation and marketing controls.
December 9—Arab oil ministers agree to another five percent cut for non-friendly countries for January 1974.
December 25—Arab oil ministers cancel the five percent output cut for January. Saudi oil minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani promises a ten percent OPEC production rise.
January 7–9, 1974—OPEC decides to freeze prices until April 1.
January 18—Israel signs a withdrawal agreement to pull back to the east side of the Suez Canal.
February 11 – United States Secretary of State Henry Kissinger unveils the Project Independence plan to make U.S. energy independent.
February 12 – 14—Progress in Arab-Israeli disengagement brings discussion of oil strategy among the heads of state of Algeria, Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
March 5—Israel withdraws the last of its troops from the west side of the Suez Canal.
March 17—Arab oil ministers, with the exception of Libya, announce the end of the embargo against the United States.
May 31—Diplomacy by Henry Kissinger produces a disengagement agreement on the Syrian front.
December 1974—The 1973–1974 stock market crash ends.

ELECTRICITY NET GENERATION (billion kilowatt-hours)

SOURCE 1973 * 2013**

Coal 847.7 1,529.0

Petroleum 314.3 26.1

Natural Gas 340.9 1,026.5

Other Gases n/a 10.76

Nuclear Power 83.5 763.8

Hydropower 275.4 293.7

Biomass-wood 0.1 36.5

Biomass-waste 0.2 19.3

Geothermal 2.0 16.8

Solar/PV n/a 7.4

Wind n/a 183.0

Total 1,864.1 3,920.8

* see "Annual Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 8.2a (September 27, 2012)

**see "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table ES1.B (August 22, 2013). EIA has provided data through June 30, 2013; the figures in the column are an approximation based on a doubling of the numbers for the first six months of the year.

PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

SOURCE 1973* 2013**

Coal 13.992 19.790

Crude Oil 19.493 15.149

Natural Gas 22.187 24.430

NGPL 2.569 3.266

Nuclear Power 0.910 7.922

Hydropower 2.861 2.786

Biomass 1.529 2.383

Biofuels n/a 1.884

Geothermal 0.020 0.226

Solar/PV n/a 0.295

Wind n/a 1.812

Total 63.563 79.946

* see "Annual Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 1.2 and 10.1 (September 27, 2012)

** see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 1.1 and 10.1 (August 27, 2013). EIA has provided data through May 31, 2013; the figures in the column are approximations based on multiplying them by a factor of 12/5.

PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

SOURCE 1973* 2013**

Coal 12.964 17.112

Petroleum 34.837 34.238

Natural Gas 22.512 28.426

Nuclear Power 0.910 7.922

Hydropower 2.861 2.786

Biomass 1.529 2.383

Biofuels n/a 1.889

Geothermal 0.020 0.226

Solar/PV n/a 0.295

Wind n/a 1.812

Total 75.684 97.243

* see "Annual Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 1.3 and 10.1 (September 27, 2012)

** see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 1.3 and 10.1 (August 27, 2013). EIA has provided data through May 31, 2013; the figures in the column are approximations based on multiplying them by a factor of 12/5.

PRIMARY ENERGY IMPORTS (quadrillion Btu)

SOURCE 1973* 2012* 2013 (Jan.-May) *

Petroleum 13.466 22.890537 8.697055

Natural Gas 1.060 3.216257 1.248683

Coal 0.003 0.228981 0.074297

Coal Coke 0.027 0.028146 0.00224

Electricity 0.057 0.202185 0.084942

Biofuels n/a 0.0447 0.01762

Total 14.613 26.610806 10.124837

* see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 1.4a and 1.4b (August 27, 2013). EIA has provided data through May 31, 2013.

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY CONSUMPTION (million metric tons of CO2)

SOURCE 1973* 2012* 2013 (Jan.-April)*

Coal 1,207 1,657 550

Natural Gas 1,178 1,367 529

Petroleum 2,350 2,254 737

Wood + Biomass Waste 143 224 74

Ethanol + Biodiesel n/a 81 27

Geothermal n/a <0.5 <0.5

Total 4,878 5,583 1,917

* see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 12.1, 12.6, and 12.7 (August 27, 2013). EIA has provided data through April 30, 2013.

PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER REAL DOLLAR OF GDP

1973* 2012*

Total Energy Consumption 75.684 95.100

(quadrillion Btu)

Gross Domestic Product 5,418.2 15,470.7

(billion chained - 2009 - dollars)

Energy Used/Real Dollar of GDP 13.97 6.15

(thousand Btu per Chained - 2009 - dollar)

* see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 1.7 (August 27, 2013). EIA has not yet provided data for 2013.

MOTOR VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY (miles per gallon)

VEHICLE TYPE 1973* 2011*

Light-Duty, Short Wheelbase 13.4 23.1

Light-Duty, Long Wheelbase 10.5 17.1

Heavy-Duty Trucks 5.5 6.3

All Motor Vehicles 11.9 17.5

* see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 1.8 (August 27, 2013). EIA has not yet provided data for 2012 and 2013.

BIOFUEL USE IN TRANSPORTATION (trillion Btu)

SOURCE 1973* 1985* 2001* 2012*

Fuel Ethanol n/a 50 141 1,050

Biodiesel n/a n/a 1 111

Total n/a 50 142 1,161

* see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 2.5, 10.2b, 10.3, 10.4 (August 27, 2013).

NUCLEAR ENERGY

1973* 2000* 2012* 2013 (Jan-May)*

Reactors (#) 42 104 104 102

Net Generation (billion kWh) 83.5 753.9 769.3 315.4

Share of Electrical Mix (%) 4.5 19.8 19.0 19.7

Capacity Factor (%) 53.5 88.1 86.2 86.1

* see "Monthly Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 8.1 (August 27, 2013) and "Annual Energy Review," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tables 9.1 and 9.2 (September 27, 2012).

Note: This year has witnessed the permanent shutdown of four reactors totaling 3.6 gigawatts of capacity. The first was Duke’s Crystal River reactor in Florida. Then Dominion Energy’s 39-year-old Kewaunee reactor in Wisconsin closed. In June, Southern California Edison shuttered its two San Onofre reactors. A fifth reactor, Vermont Yankee, has just been added to the list of planned shut-downs.

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URLs for above-listed sources:

EIA's "Annual Energy Review" has energy data from 1949 - 2011.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/index.cfm

EIA's Monthly Energy Review" has energy data up through May 31, 2013

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

EIA's "Electricity Monthly Update" has electricity data up through June 30, 2013

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update

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