ENSO-neutral is favored through the
Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14
ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during August 2013, as
reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across
much of the equatorial Pacific, with below-average SSTs in the
eastern Pacific (Fig.
1). Consistent with this pattern, weekly Niño-4 and Niño-3.4
indices were between -0.5 and 0.2oC, while Niño-3 and
Niño-1+2 indices were at or cooler than -0.5oC (Fig.
2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the
upper 300m of the ocean) remained near to slightly above average
during August (Fig.
3), due to the persistence of above-average sub-surface
temperatures across much of the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig.
4). The low-level and upper-level winds were near average
across the equatorial Pacific. Convection continued to be
enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed in the central and
eastern Pacific (Fig.
5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions
reflect ENSO-neutral.
Most model
forecasts continue to predict ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index
between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) into the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig.
6). For the next several seasons, the average of the
statistical model forecasts is near -0.5oC, while the
average of the dynamical model forecasts is near or just above
0.0oC. Similar to last month, the forecast consensus
favors ENSO-neutral (60% chance or greater) through December –
February 2013-14 (see
CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
This
discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center
web site (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).
Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated
monthly in the
Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics
Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for
10 October 2013. To receive an e-mail notification when the
monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an
e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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