Prof Pachauri shared the 2007 Nobel peace
prize for his work
Scientists are more
certain than ever that greenhouse gases from human activities are
heating the planet, the head of the UN's climate panel says.
Rajendra Pachauri made the comments in an interview with BBC
News.
The panel is due to deliver its latest report on the state of the
climate later this week in Stockholm, Sweden.
Its last report was criticised after an error on glaciers
unveiled other flaws, but Prof Pachauri said procedures had been
reformed and strengthened.
He also dismissed suggestions of a slowdown in global warming.
"There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change
is taking place and that human beings are responsible,” he told me.
"I don't think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature
increase). I would like to draw your attention to the World
Meteorological Organization which
clearly stated on the basis of observations that the first
decade of this century has been the warmest in recorded history.
"And I think the rest will be brought out by the report itself
when it’s released."
Prof Pachauri’s insistence that warming has not slowed hints at a
focus of debate this week in Stockholm: Global temperatures have not
been increasing as fast as scientists predicted, and
several governments insist that this puzzle is properly
addressed in the final summary.
Have computer climate models overestimated the sensitivity of the
planet to increasing CO2? Or has excess heat been stored up in
oceans whence it will emerge to super-heat the planet in decades to
come? Or both?
Or just perhaps it could be something else.
Unprecedented change
The draft says a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
above pre-industrial levels (expected by mid-century) is likely to
result in a temperature rise globally of between 1.5 and 4.5C.
Any rise above 2C could risk major changes on Earth, according to
projections, but the results of recent modelling involves a downward
tweak at the bottom of the range, offering the tantalising prospect
to politicians that if humans are very lucky, they could get away
with rising CO2 emissions for a bit longer than previously expected.
The panel is struggling to offer a definitive answer as to why
warming is not happening at the rate previously projected. But it
will be anxious to ensure that the likelihood of a fortunate escape
for humanity should not be overplayed.
It is expected to say that greenhouse gas emissions from human
activities have already warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice,
raised sea levels and increased climatic extremes.
It will also warn that unless emissions are cut soon, we are
likely to suffer severe changes in the climate unprecedented for
hundreds of thousands of years.
Prof Pachauri’s leadership of the panel has been strongly
supported by developing countries, although he has faced criticism
in the West. He told me he had no plans to retire after the
forthcoming report.
He said the panel enjoyed massive support, with 3,000 people
volunteering to act as authors, 831 of whom were selected.
Tightening procedures
In the detailed text of its last report, the UN panel made a
controversial mistake on glaciers.
Prof Pachauri said: "We made one mistake about the glaciers
melting by 2035 - for which we have apologised. That was totally out
of character because we always give a range for these things and it
somehow slipped through.
"But it wasn’t included in the technical summary or the summary
for policymakers, it just somehow escaped attention.
“What we did say about the glaciers was in substance not all that
wrong – the glaciers are melting across the globe so that is
something we stand by.
Continue reading the main story
Adaptation
Action that helps cope with the effects of climate
change - for example construction of barriers to protect
against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops
capable of surviving high temperatures and drought.
“This time we have been doubly careful...
[that] we don’t have any mistake of that type. And I hope that [the
report] will reassure everyone that human influence is having a
major impact on the Earth's climate.”
Prof Pachauri said he anticipated attempts to discredit the
panel. But he claimed evidence of extreme events was persuading more
and more people, especially in the US, that humans were taking a
risk with the climate.
Indeed, the report is expected to say it is very likely that
manmade climate change has produced higher precipitation in America.
"Hopefully,” he said, “there are enough sane and sensible people
in the public who will ultimately prevail."
The broader question is whether science itself will prevail over
politics. Whatever the pronouncements of the UN panel, emissions are
expected to continue to increase into the foreseeable future as
politicians weigh risks to energy bills and competitiveness against
risks to the planet.
The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has re-confirmed that he
will invite world leaders to a climate summit next year in an
attempt to galvanise action.
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