A wave of coal plant retirements in the U.S. will benefit the renewable energy industry as wind, in particular, appears poised to claim market share from marginal coal and gas plants, Barclays Capital said in a Sept. 4 report.

"Looming" environmental regulations and emissions standards are putting upward pressure on coal plant prices and could force more retirements, Barclays said. That trend coincides with what Barclays analysts expect to be a surge in wind power development through the remainder of 2013 as a result of the possible expiration of the federal production tax credit at the end of the year.

"The winner of coal retirements is not entirely natural gas, as the U.S. is seeing a significant build out of renewable generation, especially wind," Barclays wrote in the report, "Global Energy Outlook: A Compelling Time to Invest."

"Growing wind capacity would likely mean that more wind generation will take market shares away from the marginal fuel in the market, which could be gas in some areas and coal in others," according to the report.

The wind industry posted a record year in 2012 with the installation of about 13 GW of power capacity. "This year, we expect a similar level," the Barclays analysts wrote. The forecast is much more optimistic than an assessment provided during the American Wind Energy Association's annual conference in Chicago in May. There, turbine manufacturers described the paralysis developers were under at the start of 2013 as a result of the late one-year extension of the PTC. Because of the late start, turbine manufacturers said they expected the industry to install a more modest 2 GW to 3 GW of new capacity in 2013.

"There will be a market, but a much smaller one. And we'll all be competing within that," Goldwind USA Inc. CEO Tim Rosenzweig said at the time.

Barclays said continued regulatory uncertainty around the PTC makes capacity additions beyond 2013 uncertain. However, the analysts added that the PTC's new "start-construction" clause could pull development into 2014.

"The move from placed in service to begin construction is very, very helpful," Michael Bernier, a senior manager in Ernst & Young's national tax practice, said in an Aug. 26 interview. "The begun construction [standard] allows you to legitimately start projects earlier and get more projects in, so that year has a lot more bang for your buck."

AWEA said in a market report in July that industry activity ground to a halt at the beginning of 2013. No new capacity was installed during the second quarter of the year. "The wind industry slowed dramatically during the first half of 2013," the trade group said.

But "activity is now picking up," and the U.S. wind industry "is gearing up to meet strong demand for more wind energy going forward," the association said.

Goldwind USA is a subsidiary of Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology.