Mortgage Rates Make Huge Drop After Federal Reserve Declares “No Taper for QE3″

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Mortgage rates falling big after Fed says "No Taper" to QE3

Mortgage rates dropped quickly after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjourned from its sixth meeting of 2013 this week.

In its post-meeting press release, the Fed described the U.S. economy as expanding "at a moderate pace" over the past six weeks. However, the Fed did not see sufficient economic improvement to remove its existing market stimulus.

Mortgage markets are up big on the news. Conforming, FHA and VA mortgage rates are down sharply. It's a good day to get a mortgage rate.

Click here for a personalized mortgage rate.

Near-Unanimous Vote : No Change In Rates

Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-1 to leave its benchmark Fed Funds Rate unchanged at its current range near 0.000%.

The Fed Funds Rate has been "near-zero" since December 2008. When the Fed Funds Rate is low, it reduces borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Low borrowing costs stimulate spending which, by extension, stimulates the U.S. economy.

The Fed has said that the economy is not yet fully-recovered which is why the group had added additional stimulus since lowering the Fed Funds Rate to near-zero 5 years ago. One such stimulus is the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) programs.

Via quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve buys mortgage-backed and treasury bonds on the open market, creating additional demand which helps to move bond yields down.

When bond yields drop, so do mortgage rates. There have been three rounds of quantitative easing since November 2009 and the current round -- QE3 -- is the Fed's largest to-date.

Via QE3, the Federal Reserve purchases $85 billion in bonds monthly -- $40 billion mortgage-backed bonds and $45 billion treasury bonds. Its September 2012 launch ushered in the period of the lowest mortgage rates in history, with 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates dropping to 3.31 percent nationwide for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points.

Because QE3 helped bring rates down, the absence of QE3 should help lead rates up. Wall Street thought the Fed would announce its QE3 wind-down after its September meeting. The Fed did not.

Mortgage rates are making huge improvements in the wake of the Fed's statement.

See what mortgage rates are doing right now.

The FOMC Statement : September 2013

After each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the group issues a post-meeting press statement.

The statement is a concise summary of domestic economic conditions, and offers the Federal Reserve's collective opinion of whether new stimulus is required to move the economy along, and whether existing stimulus should be removed.

The Fed's statement varied little from its last meeting.

  • On housing : The sector has "been strengthening"
  • On household spending : Levels have "advanced"
  • On employment : "Further improvement", but the unemployment rates are "elevated"

The group also made mention that mortgage rates have "risen further" since its last meeting. Rates have only modestly increased, however, moving less than one-quarter of a percentage point.

Lastly, the Fed again noted that inflation rates are running below the group's 2% target rate and that persistently low inflation rates could "pose risks to economic performance".

Low inflation rates promote low mortgage rates. Today, mortgage rates look terrific.

See what mortgage rates are doing right now.

Fed : The QE3 Taper Won't Happen Today

The biggest surprise in the Federal Reserve's statement was that it did not reduce the size of its current quantitative easing program, QE3. Wall Street though the program would begin its taper toward completion immediately.

As stated by the Fed, it will continue to purchase $40 billion in mortgage bonds monthly and $45 billion in Treasury bonds monthly. These purchases create artificial demand for both bond types which helps to keep prices high.

The Fed offered several reasons for the continuance :

  1. The group is not 100% convinced that the economy can grow without QE3
  2. The group believes that low mortgage rates are important right now
  3. QE3 helps to promote inflation, which could be good for the economy, too

The Fed also made a point to mention that there is not "preset course" for the future of QE3 and that the group will continue to watch the economy for signs that the stimulus can safely end.

For now, with QE3 at full strength for at least another 6 weeks, mortgage rate shoppers are catching a break. U.S. rates are plunging.

Get A Personalized Mortgage Rate Quote

Mortgage rates are ripe for locking. Since rising one percentage point through May and June, rates have idled near 4.5 percent. Purchasing power remains strong for home buyers and millions of U.S. homeowners can still refinance to lower rates and payments.

Are you refinance-eligible? When was the last time you checked your rate against today's market pricing? The typical refinancing household lowers their mortgage rate by 1.8 percentage points. How much will you save with QE3?

Click here to get an instant mortgage rate.

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. You can also connect with Dan on Twitter and on Google+.

 

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