NREL Study Suggests Cost Gap for Western Renewables Could Narrow by
2025
August 23, 2013
A new Energy Department study conducted by the National Renewable
Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicates that by 2025 wind and solar power
electricity generation could become cost-competitive without federal
subsidies, if new renewable energy development occurs in the most
productive locations.
The report,
"Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply
and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the
West,"
compares the cost of renewable electricity generation (without federal
subsidy) from the West’s most productive renewable energy resource
areas—including any needed transmission and integration costs—with the
cost of energy from a new natural gas-fired generator built near the
customers it serves.
“The electric generation portfolio of the future could be both cost
effective and diverse,” said NREL Senior Analyst David Hurlbut, the
report’s lead author. “If renewables and natural gas cost about the same
per kilowatt-hour delivered, then value to customers becomes a matter of
finding the right mix.
“Renewable energy development, to date, has mostly been in response
to state mandates,” Hurlbut said. “What this study does is look at where
the most cost-effective yet untapped resources are likely to be when the
last of these mandates culminates in 2025, and what it might cost to
connect them to the best-matched population centers.”
The study draws on an earlier analysis the lab conducted for the
Western Governors’ Association to identify areas where renewable
resources are the strongest, most consistent, and most concentrated, and
where development would avoid protected areas and minimize the overall
impact on wildlife habitat.
Among the study’s findings:
- Wyoming and New Mexico could be areas of robust competition
among wind projects aiming to serve California and the Southwest.
Both states are likely to have large amounts of untapped,
developable, prime-quality wind potential after 2025. Wyoming’s
surplus will probably have the advantage of somewhat higher
productivity per dollar of capital invested in generation capacity;
New Mexico’s will have the advantage of being somewhat closer to the
California and Arizona markets.
- Montana and Wyoming could emerge as attractive areas for wind
developers competing to meet demand in the Pacific Northwest. The
challenge for Montana wind power appears to be the cost of
transmission through the rugged forests that dominate the western
part of the state.
- Wyoming wind power could also be a low-cost option for customers
in Utah, which also has its own diverse portfolio of in-state
resources.
- Colorado is a major demand center in the Rockies and will likely
have a surplus of prime-quality wind potential in 2025. However, the
study suggests that Colorado is likely to be isolated from future
renewable energy trading in the West due to transmission costs
between the state and its Rocky Mountain neighbors.
- California, Arizona, and Nevada are likely to have surpluses of
prime-quality solar resources. None is likely to have a strong
comparative advantage over the others within the three-state market,
unless environmental or other siting challenges limit in-state
development. Consequently, development of utility-scale solar will
probably continue to meet local needs rather than expand exports.
- New geothermal development could trend toward Idaho by 2025
since much of Nevada’s resources have already been developed.
Geothermal power from Idaho could be competitive in California as
well as in the Pacific Northwest, but the quantity is relatively
small. Reaching California, Oregon, and Washington may depend on
access to unused capacity on existing transmission lines, or on
being part of a multi-resource portfolio carried across new lines.
The study notes future electricity demand will be affected by several
factors including: trends in the supply and price of natural gas;
consumer preferences; technological breakthroughs; further improvements
in energy efficiency; and future public policies and regulations. While
most of these demand factors are difficult to predict, the study’s
supply forecasts rely on empirical trends and the most recent
assessments of resource quality.
NREL is the U.S. Department of Energy's primary national laboratory
for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development.
NREL is operated for the Energy Department by The Alliance for
Sustainable Energy, LLC.
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