One million electric cars on German roads by 2020 – an achievable goal?
By Author: Pangea
Whether the goal of one million electric cars in Germany by 2020 can be reached is currently being widely discussed.
The complexity of the situation is illustrated by the results of a
study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation
Research ISI
"Market launch scenarios for electric vehicles", commissioned by
the German National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE) and the
German Academy of Science and Engineering (acatech).
The market launch of electric cars depends, among other things, on how external factors of influence develop such as the price of crude oil or electricity. Besides these cost developments, the range of vehicles offered and the degree of acceptance of this new type of mobility will also be decisive. Under optimistic assumptions, the joint goal of the German government and the German National Platform for Electric Mobility of one million electric cars by 2020 can be reached without monetary measures. And even under less optimistic framework conditions, it should be possible to get 150,000 to 200,000 electric cars on Germany’s roads by 2020.
The successful market launch of electric cars will basically be
determined by how economical they are compared to conventional
vehicles. For electric cars to be more economical than conventional
ones, they have to be driven a lot so that their lower operating and
maintenance costs amortize their higher purchase cost. At low annual
mileages, gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engines will continue
to dominate the market in the future as will diesel engines at very
high annual mileages. In-between, the decision depends heavily on
whether sufficient electric driving shares can be realized based on
driving behavior. Electric cars make the most economic sense with
relatively uniform daily driving cycles and sufficient annual
mileage.
In the private sector, full-time workers living in rural areas and
small to medium-sized towns or the suburbs of larger cities are the
best match in this regard. These make up about one third of all
private car owners. Drivers with garages or private parking spaces,
who account for approx. 60 percent of private car owners, are even
more attractive than on-street parkers from an economic viewpoint,
because of the low charging infrastructure costs – charging can be
done over night at home rather than having to rely on public
infrastructure.
Purely commercial fleets, which account for about 30 percent of the
market for new cars, also have a significant economic potential. The
reasons are found in their driving profiles which often feature
predictable routes, the specific economic framework conditions such
as the elimination of VAT with its positive impact, especially at
the higher purchase prices of electric vehicles, and the high
relevance of economic efficiency in car purchasing decisions.
The potential of company cars has to be subjected to careful
scrutiny. These make up a high share of new car sales, especially in
the executive car segment. In the past, the main reason for the lack
of attractiveness of electric cars was the necessity to pay tax on
the listed vehicle price. Even though this drawback has been removed
by a change in the law, the driving profiles in this sector are
often characterized by irregular daily trips. This leads to low
shares of electrical driving and thus smaller economic potentials.
However, further analyses are necessary of this car segment.
For Professor Martin Wietschel it is clear that: "The focus should
be on the commercial sector when considering possible options for
supporting the market introduction of electric vehicles. Because
commercial vehicles frequently end up on the market for private
cars, this segment represents an important doorway to the wider
diffusion of electric cars. Different policy measures such as the
introduction of special tax depreciation options could accelerate
the market start-up here".
If the market launch is differentiated by the various electrical
drive systems, the study concludes that vehicles with range
extenders and plug-in hybrids with an additional conventional engine
could achieve larger market shares than battery-electric cars in the
near future (approx. three quarters). The drivers for whom these
vehicles make the most economic sense usually have electrical
driving shares of more than 80 percent.
According to the study, there are still significant uncertainties
concerning the assumptions about the willingness to pay more for an
electric car than for a conventional one, as well as the readiness
to switch to electrically-powered cars in spite of the still limited
range of available models. Both have a strong influence on the
market launch. The limited choice will be offset to some extent in
the coming months, as German car manufacturers have announced the
launch of a wider variety of models.
The study can be downloaded at
www.isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-de/e/projekte/npetco_316741_plp.php.
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
analyzes the origins and impacts of innovations. We research the
short- and long-term developments of innovation processes and the
impacts of new technologies and services on society. On this basis,
we are able to provide our clients from industry, politics and
science with recommendations for action and perspectives for key
decisions. Our expertise is founded on our scientific competence as
well as an interdisciplinary and systemic research approach.
www.isi.fraunhofer.de
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