Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1954Z from Region 1836 (N13W56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep,
07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at
04/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 110
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

Radio Events Observed 05 Sep 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0225   0225    130          0225        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

The frequency, like the electron density, decreases uniformly outwards: 245 MHz originates high in the corona, while 15,400 MHz originates in the low corona. The 5 MHz emission corresponds to about 10 solar radii height. For a detailed review, see McLean and Labrum (1985)SOLAR RADIOPHYSICS.

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2081
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 02 1315 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1157 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.