Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
538 km/s at 02/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0200Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0345Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 106
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 110/110/112
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/20

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2078 Begin Time: 2013 Sep 02 1315 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3161 pfu NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #13-35
2013 September 2 at 1:01 a.m. MDT (2013 September 2 0701 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For August 26-September 1

A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm occurred on 27 August due to a solar sector boundary crossing combined with an extended period of the southward Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. Outlook For September 2-8 A chance for an R1 (Minor) radio blackout exists from 02 through 08 September due to potential flare activity associated with the return of old Region 1817.

Radio Events Observed 02 Sep 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0538   0538    300          0538        0000  
0610   0611    1700         0610        0001  
1028   1028    270          1028        0000  
1652   1653    120          1652        0001  
1725   1725    150          1725        0000  
2124   2124    100          2124        0000  
2131   2133    110          2133        0002  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.