Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
09/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1054 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (11 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 094
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 090/090/095
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  007/008-009/010-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/50

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2085
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 09 1517 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2085
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 02 1315 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1054 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Radio Events Observed 09 Sep 2013
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0253   0253    110          0253        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.