Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at 12/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep) with a slight chance for minor storm levels, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep). III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Sep 093 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 013/015-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/05 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 45/20/05 Radio Events Observed 12 Sep 2013 A. 245 MHz Bursts No 245 MHz Burst Observed. B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |