An 'artifact from the past,' fuel oil has fallen out of favor in the
US
Houston (Platts)--17Apr2014/117 pm EDT/1717 GMT
The record-low US residual fuel oil demand reached last week was a
result decades in the making and perhaps illustrative of more to come as
pressure continues to build from increased attention on the environment.
US Energy Information Administration data published Wednesday showed
domestic fuel oil demand averaged 154,000 b/d during the week ended
April 11, the lowest figure on record since the EIA began tracking the
data in 1991.
It was not an anomaly: The 10 lowest weekly demand figures came within
the past seven months.
"This is simply a shift in power plants during this 30-year period
[since the 1979 US energy crisis] away from heavy [residual fuel oil]
toward natural gas and other products and also a shift by refineries to
upgrade and maximize high-value products and minimize low-value
products," Jim Corbett, a professor at the University of Delaware, said
Thursday.
Indeed, electric generation accounted for less than 10% of residual fuel
oil demand in 2012. Less than a decade earlier, it was closer to 50%,
the latest EIA figures show.
Furthermore, US refiners are pumping out less fuel oil -- which
typically sells for less than the crude oil used to produce it -- than
ever before. Production last year was the lowest on record.
Fuel oil, now primarily used in the marine transportation industry,
should see demand from that market dwindle, too.
Next year, ships traveling within 200 miles of shore in North America
and the Baltic and North seas must limit sulfur emissions from fuel to
0.1%, down from 1%, according to International Maritime Organization
rules.
"A lot of [the declining demand] has to do with ships as the engines
have moved toward diesel or lighter distillates," Global Hunter
Securities' Richard Hastings said. "Longer term, there's adoption of
more diesel or natural gas."
Global ports expect to see LNG account for 13% of the bunker fuel market
supply by 2020 and 24% by 2025, a Lloyd's Register report published this
month showed.
As more attention is paid to emissions of harmful pollutants, pressure
will continue to build on residual fuel.
"When the US pushes a lower emissions requirement, other countries are
going to slowly adopt a similar measure," Hastings said.
"Residual is an artifact from the past," he added.
--John-Laurent Tronche, john-laurent.tronche@platts.com --Edited by
Annie Siebert,
ann.siebert@platts.com
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