Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/1748Z from Region 2017 (N10W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 29/0321Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2127Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0203Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 143
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/35

Radio Events Observed 29 Mar 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0945   0945    180          0945        0000  
1620   1620    270          1620        0000  
1745   1751    110000       1747        0006  
1852   1852    450          1852        0000  
1952   1952    370          1952        0000  
2129   2129    100          2129        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-13
2014 March 30 at 7:12 p.m. MDT (2014 March 31 0112 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For March 24-30

An R3 (Strong) radio blackout occurred on 29 March at 1748 UTC. R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 28 March at 1918 and 2351 UTC and on 30 March at 1155 UTC.

No G1 (minor) or greater geomagnetic storms were observed.

No S1 (minor) or greater solar radiation storms were observed.

Outlook For March 31-April 6

R1 or greater radio blackouts are likely through the forecast period.
A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm is forecast to occur on 02 April.
There is a slight chance for an S1 (minor) or greater solar radiation event through the forecast period.