Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 03/0414Z from Region 2030 (N11E43). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at 03/0037Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/1828Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1446Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr). III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Apr 153 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/160/160 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 009/014-018/020-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/10 Minor Storm 15/20/01 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/20 Radio Events Observed 03 Apr 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0015 0015 140 0015 0000 0316 0316 230 0316 0000 0321 0321 110 0321 0000 1629 1629 110 1629 0000 2026 2027 540 2027 0001 2106 2108 190 2106 0002 2154 2154 100 2154 0000 2236 2236 110 2236 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 0903 0909 150 0903
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |