Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0631Z from Region 2026 (S12W31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr,
10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
433 km/s at 07/1850Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1215Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1422Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 140
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Radio Events Observed 07 Apr 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1920   1920    270          1920        0000  
2252   2253    140          2252        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
2300   2304    160          2300   

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-14
2014 April 6 at 8:51 p.m. MDT (2014 April 7 0251 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For March 31-April 6

R1 (minor) on 31 March and R2 (moderate) on 02 April solar radiation storms were observed due to significant solar activity from energetic Regions 2014 and 2027.

Outlook For April 7-13

A chance for R1 (minor) solar radiation storms exists through the outlook period.