Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0152Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr,
13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at
09/2230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/2059Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 09/2246Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 137
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  006/005-008/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/40/40

Radio Events Observed 10 Apr 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0002   0002    130          0002        0000  
0534   0534    120          0534        0000  
0542   0542    160          0542        0000  
0555   0555    100          0555        0000  
0757   0757    140          0757        0000  
0804   0804    160          0804        0000  
0808   0808    180          0808        0000  
1117   1117    100          1117        0000  
1711   1711    160          1711        0000  
1720   1720    120          1720        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1733   2333    150          2135