Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 14/0438Z from Region 2036 (S18E13). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 408 km/s at 14/0542Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1732Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 150 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/05/05 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 35/05/05 Radio Events Observed 14 Apr 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0619 0620 140 0620 0001 0939 0939 100 0939 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |