Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 17/1154Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 448 km/s at 17/1854Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/0528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (19 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (20 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr). III. Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Apr 179 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 008/008-009/012-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/40 Minor Storm 05/15/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/55/60 Radio Events Observed 17 Apr 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0218 0219 270 0219 0001 1436 1437 530 1436 0001 2352 2352 150 2352 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |