Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/2002Z from Region 2038 (S10W20). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (22 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
711 km/s at 20/2206Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 20/2126Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0030Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (22
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M    50/40/30
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Apr 159
Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr 160/150/150
90 Day Mean        21 Apr 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  020/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  014/015-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/25

Radio Events Observed 21 Apr 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-16
2014 April 20 at 11:21 p.m. MDT (2014 April 21 0521 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For April 14-20

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 20 April.

R1 (Minor) radio blackout conditions were observed on 16 April.

R2 (Moderate) radio blackout conditions were observed on 18 April.

S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm conditions were observed 18-20 April.

Outlook For April 21-27

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts during the outlook period.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 21 April.

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected during the outlook period.