"Sleeping dragon" of solar market awakens
In 2014, for the first time, China will install more PV capacity than the whole of Europe, according to IHS Inc., largely due to recent policy changes. Those changes include a recent announcement by the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) that it would increase its target for ground-mount PV projects, as well as its total installation goal, was key in driving up the forecast.
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"IHS previously expressed its doubts about the Chinese government's capability to reach an ambitious target of 8 GW worth of rooftop solar projects in 2014," said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. "While IHS still predicts this goal will not be met, China's recent announcement that it will shift its focus to ground-mount projects and increase its installation target for this segment to 6 GW has led us to raise our forecast for 2014."
The Chinese government is targeting 14 GW of additional PV capacity in 2014. Transmission grid-connected projects were the vast majority of China's solar market last year, but the government is aiming for at least 60 percent of this year's installations to be rooftop capacity, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). A shift to rooftops, rather than remote deserts, will bring additional legal and financial complications for developers, so BNEF expects China to miss its target slightly in 2014, but with higher growth in 2015.
"The 2013 figures show the astonishing scale of the Chinese market, now the sleeping dragon has awoken," said Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at BNEF. "PV is becoming ever cheaper and simpler to install, and China's government has been as surprised as European governments by how quickly it can be deployed in response to incentives."
The U.S. is still in the top three of the world's largest PV markets, preceded by Japan and China, according to BNEF. Germany, who for many years ranked top in solar investments, comes in a distant fourth.
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