U.S. coal production is expected to increase in 2014, but natural gas will retake the lead in 2015 as coal plant retirements continue and natural gas prices decrease.

Coal consumption is predicted to increase 2.5 percent to 949 MMST in 2014 due to higher electricity demand and power industry natural gas prices that are 22 percent above their 2013 level, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Short Term Energy Outlook. However, as coal retirements begin, the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard, electricity sales growth slows and natural gas prices decrease, the use of coal is projected to decrease 2.7 percent in 2015.

The projected Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average $4.46/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2015, the outlook said.

Total renewables use will increase 2.1 percent in 2014, with conventional hydropower generation projected to decrease by 2.8 percent and nonhydropower renewables to increase by 4.8 percent. In 2015, total renewable use for electric power and heat generation will increase by 4.2 percent due to a 3.2 percent increase in hydropower and a 4.7 percent increase in nonhydropower renewables.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to rise by 1.4 percent in 2014, then decline by less than 1 percent in 2015.

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