Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/1331Z from Region 2149 (N12E77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug,
24 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
356 km/s at 21/2015Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0520Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 128
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 135/140/150
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  006/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/05

Radio Events Observed 21 Aug 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0123   0123    120          0123        0000  
0151   0151    220          0151        0000  
0539   0539    170          0539        0000  
0552   0552    130          0552        0000  
0650   0650    110          0650        0000  
0839   0839    320          0839        0000  
1156   1156    460          1156        0000  
1328   1328    130          1328        0000  
1642   1646    320          1642        0004  
1704   1705    140          1705        0001  
1817   1817    120          1817        0000  
2040   2040    190          2040        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0816   0831    140          0816