Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1520Z from Region 2146 (N08W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Aug, 30
Aug) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on
day three (31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 386 km/s at 28/1026Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/0244Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 280
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (29 Aug, 30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    20/20/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 119
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  010/010-008/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/20
Minor Storm           10/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10

Radio Events Observed 28 Aug 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0509   0509    240          0509        0000  
0720   0720    170          0720        0000  
0801   0802    210          0801        0001  
0804   0804    220          0804        0000  
1230   1231    1000         1230        0001  
1327   1327    3300         1327        0000  
1356   1356    130          1356        0000  
1846   1846    420          1846        0000  
1848   1850    170          1849        0002  
1937   1937    390          1937        0000  
2348   2350    980          2349        0002  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.