ENSO-neutral is expected to continue
through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014
While remaining ENSO-neutral,
January was characterized by the periodic emergence of
below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the
tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig.
1). Weekly Niño index values in Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 bounced
around -0.5oC, while Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 stayed
within ±0.5oC (Fig.
2). This recent cooling was associated with the upwelling
phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in a dip in
the oceanic heat content (Fig.
3) and below-average subsurface temperatures at depth across
the eastern Pacific (Fig.
4). Upper and lower-level winds were near average across
most of the Pacific, except for the emergence of strong westerly
winds in the western part of the basin toward the end of the
month. Convection became more enhanced over eastern Indonesia
and the western Pacific and remained suppressed over the central
equatorial Pacific (Fig.
5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions
reflect ENSO-neutral.
Nearly all model forecasts
indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between
-0.5oC and 0.5oC) through the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2014, but afterwards, an increasing number of
models suggest the possible onset of El Niño (Fig.
6). Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific and
the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the
subsurface western Pacific potentially portend warming in the
coming months. However, the spring is also historically
associated with lower forecast skill, so the chance of El Niño
developing after the spring is not much different from
ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to
continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (see
CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
This discussion is a
consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions
are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).
Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated
monthly in the
Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics
Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for
6 March 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly
ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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