Harsh 2013-2014 Winter will go into April.....


 
Author: Weather 2000
Location: New York
Date: 2014-02-24

Prepare for late-Febrary into March period of the pop-weighted Historic ilk experienced in 2013/2005/1996/1984/1978.......

Some of the coldest temperatures of all Winter, could take place deep into March....

With anomalies 25 to 35 Degrees Below Normal *, these late-Season Polar/Arctic plunges should not be taken lightly.....

Without Pacific Recon data, Models are dilute and can still go haywire at any time....

Vendors have propagandized "Winter is Over" since November, and they'll likely mistakenly cry wolf again during March.....


February-March 2014 Climate FAQ:

Market psychology, and fueled by corrupted computer models (all Pacific Recon canceled this Winter), has recently led Vendors/forecasters to create some hysteria which is either fictional or lacking context & perspective. We've been asked by clients yet again to shed some light as well as  qualitative & quantitative sensibility to February and the back-months of Winter.

FebQ1: Several weeks ago you said FEB - APR (1st-half), would look very similar to (the mirror image of) NOV-JAN, is this still true?

FebA1: Yes, many of the same hemispheric & climate features [Net-Cold Monthly anomalies, intra-month volatility, intense Gas-weighted polar events, and vigorous Winter storms]....witnessed in November-January, would again carry over to February-March (and even April).

FebQ2: But NOV-JAN was so anomalous....can the final 10 weeks of Winter quantitatively follow in these footsteps?

FebA2: Absolutely, and we're actually ahead of the game thus far. As you can see, cold net anomalies - as well as plenty of mild days - has and will be a hallmark of the full 2013-2014 Winter Season.

Let's examine the Hubs of Chicago, Cincinnati, and New York City:

CHICAGO

NOV - JAN Mean Temp Anomaly: -5.2°F

Number of Mild Days:

November: 8

December: 10

January: 7

FEB Mean Temp Anomaly: -9.7°F (thru 2/20)

Number of Mild Days:

February: 3 (thru 2/20)

CINCINNATI

NOV - JAN Mean Temp Anomaly: -3.4°F

Number of Mild Days:

November: 7

December: 13

January: 9

FEB Mean Temp Anomaly: -5.8°F (thru 2/20)

Number of Mild Days:

February: 5 (thru 2/20)

NEW YORK CITY

NOV - JAN Mean Temp Anomaly: -2.2°F

Number of Mild Days:

November: 9

December: 13

January: 10

FEB Mean Temp Anomaly: -4.7°F (thru 2/20)

Number of Mild Days:

February: 3 (thru 2/20)

FebQ3: There's been buzz about a big warm-up for the East later this week, is this happening?

FebA3: All model/Vendor forecasts from last weekend for the Eastern US had to be revised colder for this entire workweek...and now even for the upcoming Holiday Weekend...by 5°F - 9°F(!), along with the inclusion of a major East Coast Ice-Storm (starting in the Gulf Coast States & Georgia) and Snowstorm (North Carolina to Maine).

FebQ4: So with all the Vendor "talk" about Northeast warmth, where exactly are these warm days?

FebA4: Due to the fact that models, even when precise, are still hypothetical scenarios...the reality remains cold and below normal. Correspondingly, the mild spell (reprieve) has been "postponed" day after day after day. For example, the next chance of a truly Above Normal Max temperature in New York City, is not until the middle of next week!

FebQ5: Real or Not, how long will long-range outlooks continue to depict the big warming for the MidWest & Northeast?

FebA5: As has been the case at least a Half-Dozen times since Halloween (and quantified in AFeb2 above), the atmosphere will relax...mild days will pervade the MidWest & Northeast....Polar Air stores will be replenished, and more chilly onslaughts will be depicted during the conclusion of February.

FebQ6: Are there any areas of the Nation where will Winter genuinely be fading soon?

FebA6: Of course. Removed 8 weeks now from the shortest days of the year, obviously climatology is moderating rapidly - especially across the southern-Half of the USA.  Many Vendors will conveniently take advantage of the obvious fact that the Spring Equinox is approaching to herald a "shocking" announcement that Winter is ending. This happens every year. But it doesn't mean that the final 10 weeks FEB-APR can't still produce sizeable Gas/Population-Weighted HDDs, and Wintery anomalies.

FebQ7: Are there any areas of the Nation where will Winter genuinely could be worse after January?

FebA7: A majority of the most historic NESIS ranked Snowstorms have actually taken place after January, and there's no reason why this FEB-MAR could exceed the Snow & Ice Storm frequency that we saw DEC-JAN. And remember: the milder/longer any upcoming temperature reprieve is in February, then all the more biting cold that's unused & recharged for March.

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February - April Climate FAQ, re-included for pertinence:

Following our FAQ last week [see below], a few additional questions were raised by clients this week. The observations/questions raised were that: even after you remove spin & hype from the equation (i.e. Vendors "rooting" for a warm Winter since October), or computer model erroneousness (1-2 week outlooks), the Winter is registering harsher/colder than even the observed data would suggest....

Q7: What is causing this Winter to be even harsher than short-term (or even day-of) forecasts suggest?

A7a: Most people don't live/work at Airports. A good 98% of 1st Order Weather Stations (from which Web/TV/Radio report "current conditions"), and from which Regional/National HDDs & population-weighted statistics are derived, are from Airports. Due to Airports immediately plowing-away snowfall (for obvious operational reasons), you often get a false micro-climate that is unrepresentative of the snow-pack that lingers where most residences & businesses are located. We all know that Suburban & Rural areas are typically colder than urban locations, but during this 2013-2014 Winter Season the Suburban<->Airport temperature differential has been double (and in some cases triple) that of a normal Winter. These resulting Non-Urban/Airport HDDs represent Tens of Millions of people, and are largely ignored by computer models and Vendor forecasts.

A7b: Stats don't account for Wind-Chill. Remember that Temperatures and Heating Degree Days do NOT factor in Wind (and correspondingly Wind-Chill). The penetration of colder temperatures into buildings, homes and the human body by wind, need to be assessed particularly during these periods of enhanced cyclogenesis.

A7c: Snow Fools Models. If you are reliant on models, remember that in the heart of the Winter Season Snowfall/Snow-pack becomes a significant variable (especially this year), and typically causes computer skill to plummet as they do not handle surface fluxes well. Keep in mind  that many of our population-focused 6-12" Snowstorms this Season were predicted by short-term forecasters to be mere "snow showers" 2-3 days beforehand, and often 2-4" just the eve before! Considering snow-pack (latent heat of Sublimation in 2,833 Joules/gram) extracts 13% more energy from the lower atmosphere than even wet ground (latent heat of Evaporation is 2,500 Joules/gram), you end up with a huge hemispheric parameter force largely ignored. Furthermore, Upper-Air 500 mb Maps from models (even if accurate) can often be "Red", while the Surface conditions below (where everyone lives) is quite Cold/Below Normal.

Similar to what we experienced in late-October, late-November, and late-December....there once again is a large disconnect that has emerged between Vendor-forecast rumor and the climate science reality. We've been asked by clients this week to clarify several of these misconceptions; please read our summative FAQ:

Q1: Is Winter over?

A1: No, not at all. Yes, we are closer to the Spring Equinox than we were back at Thanksgiving, and indeed the daylight hours are pleasantly increasing...but we still have harsh, significant and impactful Winter weather ahead on the order of lasting Months not Days.

Q2: But aren't there mild days in the short-term forecast?

A2: Indeed there are, which ironically has been the case all Winter! Since late-October, a good 20% of our Days across the Central & Eastern USA have been quite Mild/Balmy, only to have Polar/Arctic air masses pour down from Canada again & again. The Net-result has been a historically severe Winter Season - the likes of which we haven't seen in 10, 20 or even 40 Years (depending on region and metric such as HDDs or Snow).

Q3: Why does the vending community appear eager/excited to trumpet the "end of Winter"?

A3: The prevailing consensus back in September/October from the vending community, based largely on ENSO Analogs, was for a very warm November-January Winter. This has obviously registered disastrously negative skill scores, so the sooner they can have users forget NOV-JAN and start thinking about FEB-APR, the better off from their perspective.

Q4: What about computer model runs that depict a relaxing of patterns and warming of the Nation?

A4: Unfortunately, due to budgetary reasons, Air Force Pacific Reconnaissance Missions were canceled for this entire Winter Season. Such sampling missions provide essential upstream data that are fed into models and help quantify the downstream regimes over North America. These data are less critical in the "Autumn" months of November & December - and can be trumped by extremely intense/robust patterns as we've seen a few times this January - but they are crucial for accurately capturing Hemispheric patterns during January - April.

Q5: What will be the manifestation of the absence of Pacific Recon data?

A5: In short: frequently wild, wacky and erroneous Model runs (especially operational model runs). Ensemble Means will likely perform with slightly better skill, but they will often fail to capture the more intense patterns. By extension, the Vendor community that relies on computer models, will in turn produce forecasts that mirror the aforementioned erroneousness & changeability. And any Teleconnections (sign & intensity) that are calculated from model runs - will also in turn be riddled with errors and false positives.

Q6: Any other pitfalls or rumors to be on the look-out for from information sources?

A6: Robust economic/market movements perennially make Vendors more reactive than proactive - often mirroring the psychology of the users and telling them what they want to hear. In Mid-Late Winter, the common buzz terms they will use to elicit fear or surprise are: SSW [Sudden Stratospheric Warming] Events, MJO [Madden-Jullian Oscillation] waves & phases, QBO [Quasi-Biennial Oscillation], and even Sunspots. These processes are either improperly described, taken out of context, or have no physical relevance to the weather to which they are being attributed. Please ask us if you have questions about these atmospheric phenomena.

Q7: What is your take home message for the balance of Winter [post-January]?

A7: Our research has always contended that this would be an early, consistent, harsh, stormy, long, and historic Winter Season for the Population/Gas-weighted USA. Therefore, February - April will likely yield many of these same intense regimes we witnessed November - January.

This includes [post-January]:

More intense population-weighted HDD weeks, possibly with the harshest cold for the East Coast yet to come - as we still have not even experienced classic Greenland Blocking yet.

Perhaps some of the biggest Snowstorms we've seen yet. Lest we forget that more historic USA Blizzard have taken place in February-March than have in December-January, and early-April snows (under these regimes) are more commonplace than late-November snows.

Periodic mild spells - which actually makes the cumulative Winter colder(!) since it provides reservoirs of Polar/Arctic Air time to rebuild & recharge.

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