Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/2204Z from Region 1967 (S13E01)M4/1b event observed. There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05
Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 469 km/s at
03/0009Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0028Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1327Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 188
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 185/185/180
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/05

Radio Events Observed 03 Feb 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0022   0022    460          0022        0000  
0043   0043    100          0043        0000  
0213   0213    140          0213        0000  
0445   0445    120          0445        0000  
0812   0812    150          0812        0000  
1247   1247    540          1247        0000  
1846   1846    100          1846        0000  
1851   1852    110          1851        0001  
1949   1949    130          1949        0000  
1948   1948    100          1948        0000  
2000   2000    100          2000        0000  
2140   2140    120          2140        0000  
2224   2225    190          2224        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
2237   2359    200          2256              

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-5
2014 February 2 at 6:19 p.m. MST (2014 February 3 0119 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For January 27-February 2

R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 27 - 28, 30 - 31 January and 01 - 02 February. R2 (moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 30 January.

Outlook For February 3-9

R1 - R2 (minor - moderate) radiation storms are expected through the outlook period with a chance for R3 or greater (strong) radiation storms. A slight chance for S1 (minor) solar radiation storms exists through the outlook period.